Archives for 2019

Nasheman News :  Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah on Tuesday lashed out at the opposition, with Modi berating the Congress for never having the will or intention to end corruption, and Shah dismissing the January 19 rally of opposition leaders in Kolkata as a “gathbandhan” (alliance) of power-seekers keen on serving their own interests.

Addressing a gathering in Varanasi on the occasion of the Pravasi Bharatiya Diwas, Modi said his government has in the last four-and-a-half years succeeded in ending pilferage of public welfare schemes which successive Congress governments since Independence never intended.

Without naming Rajiv Gandhi, Modi said a former Prime Minister had famously said that of the 100 rupees that the Central government doles out for public welfare, only 15 rupees reach the beneficiaries with the rest 85 per cent leaked through corruption.

“It was an admission of a fact, of a system that the party which ruled for so long had given to the country. But even during its later rule of 10-15 years, the party never tried to stop this pilferage. The middle class taxpayer sincerely kept paying taxes and the loot of 85 per cent continued,” Modi said.

“Now I will tell you the present situation. Using technology, we have completely ended this 85 per cent pilferage. If we had not changed the system, the loot would have continued. This could have been done earlier, but there was no intent, no will,” he said.

Modi averred that in the last 4.5 years, his government has disbursed 5.78 lakh crore rupees or 80 billion dollars under various schemes through direct benefit transfer to the beneficiaries’ bank accounts.

He said if the old system had been allowed to continue, 4.91 lakh crore rupees would have leaked through corruption.

Modi said his government identified and cleaned 7 crore fake beneficiaries who existed only on paper.

Speaking at a party rally in northern West Bengal’s Malda, Shah said the opposition leaders who gathered at the Brigade Parade Ground rally only wanted a “majboor” (helpless) government so that they could “indulge in corruption”, which was not possible under the “majboot” (strong) government of Modi.

“All these leaders of the ‘mahagathbandhan’ (grand alliance) want a loose and helpless government in the country, so that they can indulge in corruption. In contrast, we want a strong government, which can teach a lesson to Pakistan,” Shah said, launching the party’s Lok Sabha poll campaign in the state.

Shah asked the crowd whether they wanted a “majboor” government or a “mazboot” government. As the crowd rooted for a strong government, Shah said: “Who can give a strong government? Only (Prime Minister) Narendra Modi can give a strong government, and none else.”

Rubbishing talks of “gathbandhan”, Shah said: “It is only an alliance of power-seekers and those only interested in serving their own interests.”

“What will they do for the country? The sole agenda of the alliance is to remove Modi.

“We say remove poverty, corruption, unemployment, illiteracy, they say remove Modi. To eradicate these ills, you (the people) have to ensure Modi returns to power, because this weak alliance of leaders won’t be able to deliver,” he said.

Targeting West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who had organised the mega rally of anti-BJP opposition parties at the Brigade Parade Ground on Saturday, Shah said: “Mamata Di, even if you gather 25 leaders, and they hold each others’ hands on the stage, Narendra Modi can’t be removed. Hundred crore Indians are standing rock solid behind Modi.”

Shah also mocked at the prime ministerial ambitions of the various opposition leaders present at the Brigade Parade Ground rally.

“There were 23 leaders on the dais, nine of them are prime ministerial aspirants. Nine PM candidates on one stage! There is a big queue,” he said, tongue in cheek.

He said in contrast the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has only one leader.

“We have only one leader. The entire NDA stands rock solid under the leadership of Narendra Modi,” he said.

Nasheman News : At least 14 people have died in a major fire that broke out on two Tanzanian-flagged ships, both carrying Indian and Turkish crew, in the Black Sea, Crimea Prime Minister Sergei Aksyonov said on Tuesday, triggering fears that the fatalities may include Indians.

The Crimean and Russian authorities, however, did not identify any of the victims in the Monday night horror near the Kerch Strait that separates Crimea and Russia. 

The Mumbai-based National Union of Seafarers of India told IANS that they were aware of the casualties but had no information about how many Indians, if any, had perished. 

Preliminary information said the fire erupted due to the failure of a pump being used to transfer fuel between the two vessels – Candy and Maestro – in violation of security regulations, Russian state news agency TASS reported.

The two ships had a total of 32 crew members including Turks, Indians and a Libyan intern. 

According to TASS, Candy had a crew of 17 — eight Indian nationals and nine Turks while the Maestro carried seven Indians, seven Turks and the Libyan.

“… We currently have information about 14 dead sailors… Other sailors have not been delivered to hospitals yet,” the Crimean leader said.

The Indian embassy in Moscow was in touch with the agencies in Russia to get more information, the External Affairs Ministry said in Delhi. 

A spokesman from Russia’s Federal Agency for Maritime and River Transport said that 12 people had been rescued and there were no chances of finding any more survivors.

“The fire on ships continues… It will not be extinguished until all the gas burns out,” the spokesman said. 

Officials said that Russian rescuers were trying to reach sailors who jumped into the waters to avoid the fire.

Severe weather conditions prevented rescue ships from bringing victims to the shore for medical treatment, RT News reported. One of the vessels was a liquefied natural gas carrier and another one was a tanker. 

Maritime traffic was not affected by the incident and navigation through the Kerch Strait is still open, the Director of the Crimean Sea Ports said.

Authorities in the Crimean city of Kerch said they were ready to receive the victims. 

The crew members were sailing in “neutral waters” in the Black Sea when the incident occurred, reports said.

The Kerch Strait is a focus of tension between Russia and Ukraine. In November, Russian border guards seized three Ukrainian naval vessels near the narrow channel, which links the Black Sea with the Sea of Azov.

The strait holds strategic importance for both sides. It is an important economic lifeline for Ukraine that allows ships leaving the port city of Mariupol to access the Black Sea.

It is also the the closest point of access for Russia to Crimea, a peninsula Moscow annexed in 2014.

Every General Election has its own script. The script is dictated by the prevailing political environment in the country. The nature of the political battle for 2019 is unfolding itself. India’s opposition has a two-fold strategy, firstly, negative anti-Modi agenda and secondly, to combine as many political groups together so as to take the best advantage of the electoral arithmetic.

Anti-Modi campaign

A negative campaign works when there is a strong anti-incumbency either against the government or against the leader. Anti-incumbency is a process by which the government of the day loses an election and the opposition wins by default. Unhappy people vote a government out. When there is a comfort level with the government and its leader, a set of more satisfied people vote a government back.

It is obvious that the level of satisfaction with Pradhan Mantri Narendra Modi is very high. If that weren’t so, where was the need for multiple disparate forces to come together against him? It is only the fear of his popularity and comeback that is bringing them together. The Prime Minister remains by far the most popular, decisive and dynamic leader of the present set of politicians. His integrity, emphasis on ethics, decisiveness, growth-oriented politics, has made aspirational India to accept him. He has singularly decimated all caste-based parties and dynastic political groups in 2014. The opposition is making Prime Minister Modi’s continuation in office as a key political issue. We in BJP welcome this agenda being set by the opposition.

The Sham Unity Arithmetic

The Kolkata rally organized by Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee was significant. On the surface, it was an anti-Modi rally. It indeed was. More significantly it was also a non-Rahul Gandhi rally. The opposition politics has thrown up four desirous Prime Ministers wishing to challenge Prime Minister Modi. Besides Mamata Banerjee, the other three – Rahul Gandhi, Mayawati and KCR were significantly absent in Kolkata. 2/3rd of those on stage were those who in the past have worked with the BJP. Some octogenarians reached Kolkata to satisfy their late-life ambitions. There was not a single speech reflecting the positive idea which the leaders proposed for the future. Negativism was writ large in their approach. The strategy of each of the four contenders is clear.

The Didi of West Bengal wants a combination of the political adventurists to back her. From the ultra-adventurist Chief Minister of Delhi to the discards of the BJP, there are not too many takers for her. The presence of the National Conference, RJD and DMK leaders was a ritual. Their State alliance interests necessitate them to be more with the Congress. The Behanji of Uttar Pradesh has a clear strategy – play it hard to get. She believes that in India, only caste matters. She is clear that this is her only opportunity. KCR is presently the exponent of a non-Congress, non-BJP front. Is there a space for any such front today? It remains a doubtful proposition. The individual strategy of each one of the above appears to be the same. Replace Modi and get on to the Driver’s seat. The Congress, if it chooses, can at best be the pillion rider.

In the Kolkata rally, negativism was the flavor. The former US Vice-President Spiro Agnew had said in 1970 in the context of the United States – “We have more than our share of the nattering nabobs of Negativism. They have formed their own 4H club the hopeless, hysterical hypochondriacs of history.”

Every word of this was true in Kolkata.

Except in Uttar Pradesh and to a lesser extent Karnataka, the arithmetical combination does not appear to be any significantly different from 2014. The whole emphasis in these two States is on caste coalitions. Vote transferability in such caste coalitions is not so simple. Local chemistries react differently. Many of these combinations end up as theoretical propositions.

The BJP and NDA have to be prepared for a battle for a 50% vote in the direct fight contest. Many States will still witness triangular contests. If a second term for Prime Minister Modi is the issue, it is advantage BJP. The election will be more presidential. If negativism is the political campaign in an aspirational nation, it won’t work. If arithmetic is the only hope, the Modi chemistry can prevail over it. People are more intelligent than what many politicians think about them. They never choose chaos as an option. What has been presented by the opposition is a post-election leadership battle, no common programme, no policy and a disastrous memory of their administrative disabilities. Experimented, tried and failed ideas only scare voters. They convey no appeal. People want a Five Year Government, not a six month one.

Epilogue

Amongst the early elections that I participated in as a student, was the 1971 General Elections. We in the Opposition had formed a ‘Grand Alliance’ the English Translation of “Mahagathbandhan”. We had powerful leaders and a head-start in the media. Additionally, the Congress had split into two. One of the tallest journalists of that generation, Frank Moraes wrote a daily political column against the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Curiously, it was also titled ‘Myth and Reality’. The results were announced, India rejected negativism. The India of 2019 has moved way ahead of India of 1971. Aspirational society never commit a collective suicide. They do not suffer from a Lemming Syndrome.

Agencies

Nasheman News : Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday told overseas Indians that his government is making efforts to ease the processes concerning their social security, passport, visa and PIO and OCI cards and that work is on to issue chip-based e-passports.

Inaugurating this year’s Pravasi Bharatiya Divas (PBD), the Indian diaspora conclave, he said that the government’s endeavour was that overseas Indians should stay “happy and safe wherever they are”.

“The government is trying to ease the entire processes concerning your social security, passport, visa, Persons of Indian Origin (PIO) and Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) Cards. We have taken a new step a few months back concerning overseas Indians. Our embassies and consulates are being connected to the Passport Seva Project worldwide,” he said.

This, he said, will prepare a centralized system connected to the passport service for all of them. “Going one step ahead, work is on for issuing of the chip-based e-passport.”

The Prime Minister said that along with passport, the rules related to visa were being simplified. 

“With the convenience of e-visa, you are also saving time and problems are also getting reduced. 

“Many of you will also be familiar with the fact that our government has made the process of converting PIO (Person of Indian Origin) cards into OCI (Overseas Citizen of India) cards.”

Modi also urged Indians or people of Indian living abroad to contribute to the building of a new India and said that the changes that were coming in India were becoming new opportunities. 

“In this changing India, you can play a big role in research and development and innovation. 

“The government is also trying to bring Indian start-ups and NRI mentors together on one platform. Defence manufacturing can also be an important sector for you.”

Modi urged Indians living abroad to motivate at least five families around them to come to India. “Your efforts will play an important role in enhancing tourism in the country.”

He said that in the last four years, India had taken a major step towards achieving its natural position in the world. 

“People used to say that India cannot change,” he said. “We have changed this thinking. We have made changes.”

Stating that today India led the world in many fields, he said the International Solar Alliance was one such example. 

“It is also part of our goal of preparing solutions to India’s problems, that can also solve the problems of other countries. We are working with the application of local solution, global application.”

Modi added: “In the last four-and-a-half years, more than two lakh Indians stranded in crisis situations abroad have been helped by the government and its efforts.” 

Ahead of this year’s general elections, Modi also launched an attack on the Congress over the issue of corruption citing a quote by former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi.

“He said that only 15 percent of the money that the central government sends from Delhi reach the people.”

Modi said no attempt was made by the Congress to stop this loot. “The country’s middle class continued to pay taxes honestly, and 85 per cent of this loot continued.”

But his government was using technology to eliminate this loot. 

Modi’s Mauritius counterpart Pravind Jugnauth, the chief guest at the event, commended India’s efforts in reaching out to the diaspora.

Earlier, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj welcomed the gathering.

Organised by the External Affairs Ministry and the Uttar Pradesh government, the Indian diaspora conclave this year has over 5,000 delegates registered.

This year’s theme of the convention is “Role of Indian diaspora in building a new India”.

Modi called this year’s PBD the “most successful” event saying the people of Varanasi, his Lok Sabha constituency, have taken ownership of the three-day jamboree. 

Nasheman News : Farm loan waivers and other schemes declared by states will raise their aggregate fiscal deficit next year but will not pose a major risk to their total debt burden, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said in a report.

“The agency expects the aggregate fiscal deficit of states to come in higher at 3.2 per cent in FY20 than the agency’s forecast of 2.8 per cent in the FY19 mid-year outlook.

“Although this is higher than the fiscally prudent level of 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), Ind-Ra believes this will not pose a significant upside risk to states’ aggregate debt burden in FY20,” the report said.

Further, Ind-Ra has maintained a stable outlook on the finances of the states for 2019-20.

States’ revenue account on aggregate is likely to clock a deficit of 0.5 per cent of GDP in 2019-20 due to a higher growth in revenue expenditures than revenue receipts, it said. 

“The competitive populism, in the nature of farm loan waivers and other financial support schemes, would take centre stage in the run-up to next general elections in May 2019. 

“A larger impact is expected on fiscal and revenue deficit to gross state domestic product ratios for Madhya Pradesh, Kerala and Rajasthan, among non-special category states, in FY20,” it added.

As per the report, states’ total revenue expenditure is likely to grow 18.9 per cent year-on-year (yoy) to Rs 33,280.90 in FY20 from 11.2 per cent in current fiscal. 

Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Assam and Rajasthan have announced farm loan wavers in December 2018 to address farmers’ distress. Odisha and Jharkhand too have announced schemes similar to Rythu Bandhu scheme in Telangana for small and marginal farmers.

The casualty of farm loan waivers would be the capital expenditure as capex is a soft target for deficit control during periods of fiscal adjustment, the rating agency said.

“Ind-Ra expects states’ aggregate capex/GDP to come in marginally lower at 3 per cent in FY20 from the budget estimate of 3.07 per cent for FY19,” it said.

The agency believes capex to GDP ratio could come in below 3 per cent for Tamil Nadu, Haryana, West Bengal and Kerala in 2019-20.

Ind-Ra expects the aggregate debt/GDP to rise to 25.1 per cent in FY20 from the budgeted 24.3 per cent for FY19. 

“The agency does not view the increase to be detrimental to states’ debt sustainability position, although states would channelise some part of borrowings towards meeting revenue expenditure,” the report observed. 

In Ind-Ra’s opinion, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are most susceptible to clock an increase in the debt burden in FY20.

Ind-Ra estimates the gross market borrowings of states to be Rs 5.7 trillion in FY20 and in the range of Rs 5.01 trillion-5.13 trillion in FY19, which is higher than the states’ budgeted gross market borrowings of Rs 4.4 trillion for FY19.