It seems the obituary was written far too prematurely for BJP’s project — purportedly known as Operation Lotus — to dislodge the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) coalition government in Karnataka. Even as the state BJP’s MLAs were packing their bags in a Gurugram five-star hotel in anticipation of returning home, the Congress on Friday night quarantined its legislators in two plush Bengaluru resorts.  The Congress decided to keep its MLAs in safe custody after four legislators didn’t show up at the legislature party meet earlier Friday. The four abstentions are too few to pose an immediate threat to the coalition government, but enough to send fresh jitters through the Congress camp, considering the alliance’s thin margin.

Before the crisis began, Congress and JD(S) had a strength of 118 members in an Assembly of 224 (against BJP’s 104), while the mark of simple majority stands at 113. Of the four who didn’t show up, one said he was “too sick” to make it, and another claimed he was busy with a court appearance. Two Independents supporting the government seem to be perched — rather conveniently — on the fence. State BJP president BS Yeddyurappa is keeping his hopes up of ousting the government so that he can replace Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy of the JD(S), with the silent approval from his central leaders, who believe that grabbing power in Karnataka might give BJP an edge in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

On the face of it, it seems the BJP has a tough ask to get the numbers it needs, but what keeps Yeddyurappa’s adrenaline flowing is the mess in the Congress, which is of that party’s own making. Yet, the BJP can hardly claim the moral high ground in this sordid drama. The saffron party is as scrupulous as the burglar saying he tried to empty a house because the family was busy squabbling. It’s too early to declare that the government is safe or is about to fall. The only thing certain at this point is that the curtain hasn’t fallen in the nataka in Karnataka.

Karnataka’s four wars

In the normal circumstances of an Opposition trying to topple a government, the ruling party proving its flock is intact — more or less —should end all confusion. But no one is saying that the mess in Karnataka fits into the normal template of political coups. That’s because this crisis is not a simple case of BJP fighting the Congress-JD(S) combine and trying to break its seven-month government. It’s not just one war: There are four wars being fought at the same time. The most obvious one is between BJP and the alliance. The second is the war between Yeddyurappa, who is in a hurry to take the seat of the chief minister, and his enemies within his party who want to leave the government alone and focus on winning the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The third war is between JD(S) and Congress over who calls the shots in the government. And the fourth and the most terrible tussle is among the different factions of the Congress.

It is the Congress infighting that most threatens the longevity of the coalition government. At its very centre is Siddaramaiah, whose tenure as chief minister ended when the Assembly elections in May 2018 threw up a hung verdict. Left to his own devices, Siddaramaiah would have retired to the sidelines to lick his electoral wounds. But Congress president Rahul Gandhi hit upon the idea of manufacturing a miniature mahagathbandhan for Karnataka. Rahul thrust on his party an alliance with JD(S) to earn himself accolades as the only man capable of saving India from the “evil designs” of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP.

But Siddaramaiah didn’t know what hit him when Kumaraswamy, the son of his one-time political godfather and arch enemy HD Deve Gowda, became chief minister. And G Parameshwara, a Dalit leader of Congress for whom Siddaramaiah has no particular love, became  deputy chief minister. What further added to Siddaramaiah’s chagrin was that DK Shivakumar, an upper caste Vokkaliga leader of Congress and one of India’s richest politicians, began to flex his political and economic muscles and earned himself the nationally telecast title of “troubleshooter” by thwarting Yeddyurappa’s attempt to steal Congress MLAs after the election.

When all this happened, Siddaramaiah embraced Deve Gowda and his son Kumaraswamy. But that was only for the TV cameras. Behind their backs, Siddaramaiah had other ideas. Just what those ideas might be, Karnataka is discovering only now. For his part, Rahul kept Siddaramaiah in good humour, keeping in mind his backward classes clout. Siddaramaiah declared himself on Twitter to be the party’s official “troubleshooter”.

But it was alleged that when there were no troubles for Siddaramaiah to ‘shoot’, he created them: so that he could be seen to be busy sorting them out. The latest trouble Siddaramaiah created was by appropriating for his acolytes ministerial berths in the 22 December cabinet expansion. But this became too much of a fire for even him to douse. That was when the original troubleshooter Shivakumar stepped in, and it became a question of who held the party in his hands. And as this went on, Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy took the matter into their own hands. Gowda had a heart-to-heart talk with Rahul, while Kumaraswamy commissioned Congress leaders to talk to disgruntled MLAs.

This meant that the JD(S) chief minister himself became a third troubleshooter. This, for Siddaramaiah, was two troubleshooters too many. But dissidents fell in line after apparently being promised Lok Sabha tickets, ministerial berths and freedom to transfer officials as they pleased (in their constituencies). This was not to Siddaramaiah’s liking. Then came Siddaramaiah’s move to call the meeting of the legislature party — as its leader  — to tell Kumaraswamy who controlled the fate of his government. Which was not to Kumaraswamy’s liking.

In the middle of all this, Kumaraswamy bemoaned on Thursday that “it is my misfortune to be serving as the chief minister in a coalition government for the second time. Hence, I am unable to deliver programmes as expected by the people.” This might sound suspiciously like the melancholic outburst of a chief minister beleaguered by enemies out to topple him, but it was an adroit way of telling the world —particularly Rahul — that the crisis has the Congress hand written all over it.

Agencies

Nasheman News :  At least 21 people have been killed and 71 others injured in an oil pipeline explosion in central Mexico, authorities said.

It is believed the blast occurred after the pipeline was ruptured by suspected oil thieves in the town of Tlahuelilpan, in Hidalgo state, on Friday night, the BBC reported.

According to officials, dozens of people were scrambling around the ruptured pipeline to fill up containers when fire broke out. TV footage showed large flames and people at the scene with severe burns.

Hidalgo Governor Omar Fayad told the media that the explosion was followed by the fire.

Residents in the immediate vicinity of the pipeline, which runs from the cities of Tuxpan to Tula in the state of Veracruz, had been evacuated, state oil company Pemex said in the statement.

“I’m very sorry for the serious situation in Tlahuelilpan due to a pipeline explosion. I’m in Aguascalientes and since the Director of Pemex and the Defence Secretary briefed me, I gave instructions to contain the fire and treat the victims,” tweeted Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Authorities have blamed fuel theft for previous explosions in Mexico. In 2010, a pipeline blew up in the state of Puebla, leaving 28 people dead and scores wounded.

Nasheman News :  The four nuns, who publicly protested last year demanding rape accused Bishop Franco Mulakkal’s arrest, and were handed transfer orders three days back, on Saturday sought Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s intervention in the matter.

The nuns, who are presently attached to a Kuruvilangad convent near here, have been posted at four different places vide the transfer order issued on Wednesday.

In the letter, they requested Vijayan to see to it that the transfer orders were revoked as their only agenda was their wish to remain with the victim, who was yet to receive any sort of support from the Church and was only banking on them.

Seeking the intervention, they pointed out that these transfers were effected as they were all witnesses in the case against the then Roman Catholic Diocese head in Paunjab’s Jalandhar, Bishop Mulakkal, who is accused of raping the victim nun repeatedly between 2014 and 2016.

Mulakkal was arrested on September 21, 2018, on rape charges after these four nuns joined the public protest in Kochi that forced the police to succumb to pressure from various quarters and take strong action against the bishop.

The nuns on Wednesday refused to accept the transfer orders and said they would remain in the convent at Kottayam, where they are currently posted.

Following the transfer orders though, the Mother Superior of the Missionaries of Jesus — the congregation to which these nuns are attached to — have gone on record to say that this was just a routine transfer that happened regularly.

Mulakkal had secured bail on October 16, 2018, and was back in Punjab.

Nasheman News :  Tens of thousands of enthusiastic workers and supporters, including a man on a wheelchair, attended the mega anti-BJP rally at the historic Brigade Parade ground here on Saturday raising their voices against Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee reached the venue almost an hour before the scheduled time while party leaders, MPs MLAs took their seats on the side stage.

Amidst elaborate security arrangements, the enthusiastic participants gathered waving giants flags. People were seen donning party symbols on hats and clothes.

Most of their sloganeering were centred around Modi, BJP National President Amit Shah and about the party’s rule “finishing” in 2019.

Kamaludddin Khan came on a wheelchair came with a placard greeting the TMC chief and wished that she keeps moving ahead indirectly sharing his desire to see Banerjee as the next Prime Minister.

Finally, their wait was over as the rally, which is expected to kick-start the Opposition’s campaign ahead of the upcoming general election, got going.

“We want to hear didi,” Atish Chandra Bagdi, an avid supporter of the Trinamool supremo from Murshidabad district said. He painted himself in his party’s colours.

Some people like Amzad Hossain from Coochbehar district donning dresses printed with the party’s symbol, had arrived in the city on Friday.

“Let us take the pledge of building a progressive, strong and United India” read the backdrop of the main stage, where a number of Trinamool flags fluttered.

[Nasheman news] Kolkata Senior Congress leader Shashi Tharoor feels his party is “on the march” and even if it bags lesser seats than the ruling BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, it can still form a UPA-III government with the help of its allies.

“Congress is on the march. I can’t give you an exact number because a lot of alliance determinations are yet to be finalised, but I would say that even if we got fewer seats than BJP, we would still have enough regional parties who would wish to ally with us. 

“So, a UPA-III is far more likely than an NDA-III,” Tharoor said during an interaction at the Apeejay Kolkata Literary Meet here late on Friday.

“The BJP is going to go from about 282 to at best somewhere around 160 seats,” Tharoor predicted when asked about the polls later this year.

“They won’t find the allies. They can look around the country, even the allies they had in 2014…some have deserted them.

“It’s interesting to see that the RSS has predicted a hung parliament in their publication. I would say if you look across the heartland, the BJP is losing awful lot of votes.

“They did too well last time (2014) for their own good. It would have been impossible (for them) to replicate even if they had a successful government. 

“Now that they are not doing well as a government, those numbers are going to be halved,” he further added.

Queried about the reasons for his prediction that the government would fall, the 62-year old diplomat-turned-politician pointed out that not meeting promises and the growing communal discord in the country would dominate the election campaign.

“What happened to ‘Acche Din’? You were promised better times. How many of you are better off as a result of this government’s five years. And if they have failed, then why do they deserve a second chance?

“So the first and most important message is, kya aapke ke liye acchhe din aaye hai? If not, let’s turf these fellows out for their pretences.

“Petrol price rise, taxation, job crisis and so on. A lot of this is going to dominate the election campaign.

“A second issue must be the growing communalisation of the society. Do we really want our children to be growing up in a country in which people are seeking to divide us in the name of hatred, in the name of communnalism or religion? Or do we want to live as we would live before that?”

Tharoor said the opposition alliance may vary from state to state and place to place. “But the support that the Congress is expressing through the presence of its leaders (at the rally) here is precisely because of the conviction at all levels of the party that the opposition must resist the very dangerous tendencies we saw in last five years,” he later told reporters on the sidelines.