Lucknow, May 3 : Crucial caste factor will play an important role in the 41 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh which will be covered in the next three phases of polls.
BJP vs SP-BSP alliance would be intense in this phase though in certain places, Congress could play a vital role in dampening the spirits of both the BJP and the opposition alliance.
Next three phases will witness elections in VIP constituencies like Amethi, Rae Bareli, Varanasi and Azamgarh from where Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Narendra Modi and Akhilesh Yadav are in fray.
There are other VIP constituencies like Gorakhpur where prestige of Chief Minister is at stake or Kushinagar from where RPN Singh of Congress is contesting. Even the state president of BJP Dr Mahendra Nath Pandey is seeking a re-election from Chandauli and Faizabad, the epicenter of Hindutava campaign, in the last three phases.
All eyes will also be on Menaka Gandhi who is contesting from Sultanpur after swapping seats with her son Varun, who is BJP candidate from Pilibhit.
The aura of these leaders or constituencies notwithstanding it is the caste which is likely to give a bigger challenge to the BJP in the remaining phase of elections in Uttar Pradesh.
In 2014 the BJP and its ally ? Apna Dal ? won 38 of the 41 seats that will go to polls in last three phases.
The three seats opposition won include– Rae Bareli and Amethi ? won by Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi respectively, and Azamgarh- from where Mulayam Singh Yadav won hands down.
In the electoral history, 2014 elections can be termed as an aberration because the country swayed by Modi wave voted in favour of BJP obliterating the caste line which is quite prominent in central and eastern Uttar Pradesh.
“It is the caste which decides the voting pattern in Uttar Pradesh. The political parties too field candidates on caste lines despite that fact that caste system is a taboo as per our constitution,” Dr Nomita P Kumar of Giri Institute of Development Studies said here on Friday.
She has carried out a study on election pattern of 2014 polls and said that collective vote percentage of opposition parties is much more than the vote BJP polled in last three phase. In phase 5 BJP polled 40.8 per cent votes while the coalition got 52.9 per cent votes. Others got 6. 3 per cent votes.
In the fifth phase, which will be held on May 6, constituencies like Dhaurahra, Sitapur, Mohanlalganj, Lucknow, Raebareli, Amethi, Banda, Fatehpur, Kaushambi, Barabanki, Faizabad, Bahraich, Kaiserganj and Gonda will go to polls.
“The scenario was no different in phase 6 of 2014 polls when BJP polled 38.3 per cent votes, which is less than it polled in phase 5 but others poll percentage got up to 9.2 per cent. The coalition vote percentage, however, remained intact which is 52.5 per cent,” Dr Kumar said.
The sixth phase election is on May 12 and constituencies like Sultanpur, Pratapgarh, Phulpur, Allahabad, Ambedkar Nagar, Shrawasti, Domariyaganj, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Lalganj, Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Machhlishahr and Bhadohi will go to polls.
Dr Kumar said that last and seventh phase was most productive for the BJP in 2014 because it got 43.9 per cent votes, marginally more than opposition alliance which got 44.1 per cent votes.
The constituencies like Varanasi, Gorakhpur and Kushinagar will be among 13 constituencies that will go to polls on May 19.
“In this scenario, the BJP faces a tough challenge from opposition in the last three phases of election because the caste will play a dominant role,” she said.
