Two prominent BJP slogans have been missing from its ongoing campaign for five states — the promise of achche din and the dream of Congress-mukt Bharat. The reason for the BJP’s reluctance to reuse its popular jumlas from previous elections is apparent: Elections for these states do not portend achche din for the party, and the Congress appears set for an impressive comeback instead of getting wiped out of India.
For the first time since the advent of the Narendra Modi-era in politics, the Congress, as several surveys point out, starts as the frontrunner in this round of elections.
According to CVoter, it might sweep Rajasthan, win Telangana and win Madhya Pradesh by a small margin. Even in Chhattisgarh, the Congress is locked in a close contest with a slight lead over the BJP that could be decisive.
Just a few months ago, with the BJP decapitating its rivals ruthlessly in elections and the Modi-Amit Shah duo looking unassailable, who would have thought the Congress might be dreaming of a 4-0 win and the BJP would be fearing a wipeout? But, as Richie Benaud would have said, it’s all happening here.
Rajasthan, by electoral behaviour, is a state of extremes. Its impatient and fickle voters swing from one end of the spectrum to the other in almost every election, turning objects of their adulation into subjects of scorn and ridicule. But, the problem with the BJP in Rajasthan is that its government became extremely unpopular very early in its tenure.
The BJP had invested almost two decades in Raje. She is the party’s most popular face in the stae and nobody else in the party has a pan-Rajasthan appeal. Her falling graph and projected loss imply the BJP will have to find new faces to lead the party in 2019 to neutralise the anger against Raje.
In Chhattisgarh, similarly, the BJP is still in the fight because of a division in the anti-government vote. Ajit Jogi and Mayawati are taking away a small but decisive chunk of votes away from the Congress, helping the BJP in a triangular contest. Had the Congress done something to address the Mayawati-Jogi problem, it would have started as a clear frontrunner in the state.
Also, voters in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are clear about their choice for the prime minister’s post — most of them prefer Modi over Rahul Gandhi. This clarity in the voter’s mind may be a blessing for the BJP in 2019. But this year, it could be a curse, since voters are likely to convince themselves that voting the BJP out in the Assembly elections won’t be an act of disloyalty if they support Modi in the Lok Sabha. This dichotomy of faith is summed up by a slogan reverberating in Rajasthan: Modi tujh se bair nahin, Raje teri khair nahin (No animosity with Modi but won’t spare Raje).
