Motherson Sumi’s (MSS) Q4FY16 adjusted EBITDA at INR10.6bn (up 17% YoY) came ~6% below our estimate due to sharp disappointment in SMR/SMP revenues. Key highlights were: 1) India business (revenue and margin) surprised positively; 2) SMRPBV’s disappointing revenue was compensated by robust margin; 3) sharp jump in SMRPBV’s order book to EUR13.5bn (EUR10.8bn YoY); and 4) robust demand outlook across key clients and geographies. Maintain ‘HOLD’ with SOTP-based target price of INR280 (standalone: 22x, SMR: 12x and SMP: 12x FY18E PER).
Operating performance: SMR/SMP revenues disappoint
Consolidated revenue at INR102bn (up 8% YoY) was ~6% below our estimate due to weaker-than-expected revenue in SMR and SMP. In EUR terms, SMR and SMP revenue grew 7% and 2% YoY, respectively (slowest in past 8-10 quarters). However, India business surprised positively with 13% YoY revenue jump led by higher share of new models and rising content per vehicle. EBITDA margin of India business at 20.9% (up 240bps QoQ) and SMR business at 12.5 % (up 180bps QoQ) surprised positively.
India: Worst is behind; SMR/SMP margin trend key monitorable
After 4 quarters of subdued growth, India revenue grew 13% YoY. We estimate 17%/22% revenue growth for FY17/18 as the market share loss phase is behind. In SMR/SMP, ramp up of new plants remains key to revenue growth and margin improvement. We estimate ~15% revenue growth for SMR/SMP in FY17/18 each.
Outlook and valuations: Positives factored in; maintain ‘HOLD’
We believe the earnings downgrade cycle is largely behind. For India, we expect revenue growth to track volumes going ahead. We estimate FY16-18 consolidated EPS CAGR of 26% with ~36% RoE. RoCE is anticipated to catapult to ~36% in FY18 from 26% in FY16 and net debt/equity is likely to improve as well to 0.3x from 0.7x over the same period. Ergo, we revise up our target PE multiples for standalone business to 22x (from 20x) and of SMR/SMP businesses to 12x (from 10x). However, the recent stock price surge captures the positives. Hence, we maintain ‘HOLD/SU’ with revised target price of INR280 (INR248 earlier). At CMP, the stock trades at FY18E PER of 17x.
