BENGALURU: The latest Covid-19 surge, possibly fuelled by the super-contagious Omicron variant, could last another month or more, health experts believe.
So intense has been the surge that the state’s active cases have risen by 28.68 per cent from 13,532 on Tuesday to 17,414 on Wednesday, while that of the state capital shot up by 29.23 per cent from 11,423 to 14,762 overnight.
Warning people to be watchful of the spike, Health Minister Dr K Sudhakar said the next four to six weeks will be crucial and that the peak in cases needs to be watched out for.
“The state government, based on experts’ opinion, has imposed stricter restrictions to contain the surge. But the next four to six weeks are crucial and only if people cooperate can we help the situation from not getting any worse,” he said.
Third wave will not be for too long, says minister
Several studies, minister Sudhakar said, have shown that Omicron infects and multiplies 70 times faster than the Delta variant and the original SARS-CoV-2 in the human bronchus, which explains why Omicron may transmit faster between humans than the previous variants.
However, it is also seen that infection in the lung is significantly milder than the original SARS-CoV2, which may be an indicator of lower disease severity and hence, lesser admissions and deaths. The state on Wednesday reported just two deaths, both from Bengaluru.
Sudhakar said, “As we have observed worldwide, it is declining in five to six weeks. This wave will not be for too long, like in the first and second waves that were for three to four months.”
A mathematical model by Prof Siva Athreya of Indian Statistical Institute, Professor Rajesh Sundareshan of IISc, Bengaluru, and their team’s preliminary projections on Omicron has shown that in the best case scenario, there may be 40,000 cases per day and worst case will be around 1.2 lakh for Karnataka at the peak of the wave.
If 1 per cent of this population need hospitalisation, that will mean around 400 to 1,200 admissions per day, as per the prediction.
Well-known epidemiologist and public health expert Dr Giridhara Babu R said, “Based on the modelling results presented by Prof Athreya and Prof Sundaresan, we are likely to see the surge in the last week of January to first week of February. In the best case scenario of the model, assuming that the restrictions imposed from Wednesday are effective, the load on hospitalisation might be lower compared to Delta wave.”
He, however, said the infection with Omicron variant is not like getting vaccinated, and one should stay away from misinformation regarding this.
“It is best to avoid getting infected,” he said.
WHO Chief Scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan took to Twitter speaking on the Omicron situation in India, and said, “Omicron is NOT the common cold! Health systems can get overwhelmed. Important to have systems to test, advise and monitor large number of patients as the surge can be sudden and huge.”
GIRL DIES, CONTAINMENT ZONES RISE
Amid concerns of the third wave affecting children, a 15-year-old girl, who had comorbidities, died after testing positive for Covid-19 in Bengaluru.
However, Health Department officials said the death was not due to Covid-19 but due to other comorbid conditions for which the girl was admitted to hospital. The health bulletin from the Karnataka Health Department on Wednesday stated that she had symptoms of Influenza-Like Illness with symptoms of fever. She was a resident of Bengaluru and had immunocompromised disorder.
An official said, “She had a one-year history of intermittent headache and was admitted to the hospital when her condition deteriorated. She was shifted to a private hospital on January 3 where she developed cerebral problems. When a rapid test was done in the ICU, she tested positive for Covid-19.”
Meanwhile, the total active micro containment zones in the city went up to 182 with Mahadevapura having 57 , Bommanahalli 53 and West zone 20.
