PVR’s Q4FY16 revenue and PAT came in line. Key positives were: (i) advertising increased by 19% YoY versus Inox Leisure which saw 2% YoY dip; (ii) net box office collection surged 36% YoY, driven by 9% YoY LTL ATP growth and 18% YoY LTL footfalls growth aided by blockbusters like Airlift and Neerja; (iii) F&B revenues soared 50% YoY led by 17% LTL SPH growth. EBITDA margins expanded 767bps YoY on favourable base. Going ahead, PVR will have a strong base of H1FY16. However, we expect the company to clock decent performance drawing from strong content pipeline and screen expansion in FY17. Maintain ‘BUY’.
Screen expansion continues; employee cost slightly higher
In Q4FY16, PVR added 25 screens (52 screens in FY16). The company will add another 65 screens in FY17 (17 in Q1FY17, 14 in Q2FY17), which will drive footfalls in FY17. Employee cost increased by 39.7% YoY due to addition of new screens and New Bonus Act. PVR will continue to add 50% of its new screens in tier I cities where ATP is above INR200. Upcoming movies such as Udta Punjab, Independence Day and Sultan are expected to do well for PVR.
Q4FY16 conference call: key takeaways
PVR expects 3-5% YoY ATP growth in FY17. The company has 283, 181 and 60 screens in tier I, II and III cities, respectively. E-commerce accounts for 10% of the ad revenue. PVR’s ad rates are ~30-40% higher than competitors. Going ahead, entertainment tax will be marginally higher as Delhi’s higher entertainment tax was not present in the base for 3-4 months. The company expects SPH to increase 8-10% YoY in FY17. It is launching popcorn, juices and merchandising for kids to drive growth. PVR expects DT Cinema’s consolidation from Q2FY17.
Outlook and valuations: Positive; maintain ‘BUY’
We remain enthused by PVR’s dominance and expansion in exhibition business and we envisage the company to continue to benefit from strong content pipeline in FY17 as well. We estimate PVR to log 19.8% EPS CAGR over FY16-18. At CMP, the stock is trading at 27.7x and 22.1x FY17E and FY18E EPS, respectively. We maintain ‘BUY/Sector Outperformer’ with a target price of INR956 (25x FY18E EPS).
