Archives for 2018

The drama revolving around the Karnataka state elections refuses to fade away. The assembly election results were not able to provide a clear mandate to any party. The BJP emerged as the single largest party but popular rivals Congress and JD-S forged an alliance within hours of the announcement of the result after realising that the coalition will have the numbers to form the government.

This paved the way for the controversy about who should first be invited by the Governor: the party with the largest number of seats or the post-election alliance with majority seats. The Governor sided with the BJP, and B.S. Yeddyurappa was sworn in as the Chief Minister. But this decision was challenged by the Congress and petitions were filed in the Supreme Court. The Court ordered a floor test but Yeddyurappa resigned before this could be conducted.

Amidst all this chaos and despite the final verdict, BJP has emerged as a clear winner. Its vote share increased from 19.9 percent to 36.2 percent, and the party was able to up its tally by almost 64 seats and gained the much-needed momentum for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. On the other hand, Congress and JD-S both have suffered losses in the number of seats — that of the Congress going down from 122 to 78 and the JD-S securing three less that the 37 seats it had in the outgoing house.

One of the biggest questions that emerges from these results is what went wrong for Congress or to put it in other words, how was the BJP able to swing public support in its favour? Was the electorate just living up to its reputation of not re-electing the ruling party since 1985 or was it the way parties conducted their election campaigns? The search for the answer leads us to the bigger question of what makes Indian voters tick.

An analysis of the electoral outcome provides the answer. The analysis predicted that Congress party has just 18 percent chance of coming back to power in Karnataka. It took into account a) average growth in per capita GSDP for the last three years, b) the average change in Social Progress scores for the last three years, c) consumer and business confidence and d) media presence to understand the voting dynamics of world’s largest democracy.

The growth in per capita GSDP and change in regional social progress reflect how the economic and social benefits accrued to the citizens due to the policies of the state government. Consumer confidence and business confidence captured the trust that people have in the central government. The last indicator captured the interest enjoyed by the political parties.

There are three things that shape up the voting behaviour in India.

First, social issues. The analysis brings out that while casting their vote, people keep in mind two major social issues – inclusion and wellbeing. Inclusion encompasses indicators that capture how acceptable a region is towards minorities and other socially backward groups, and how they treat women. An inclusive incumbent increases its chances of coming back to power by 3.6 percent. And if the voters feel that the party will work towards basic wellbeing such as healthcare and education, its chances move up by 2.1 percent.

The BJP was able to target both issues. The BJP rallies focussed on the pro-poor initiatives and welfare schemes. The issues included providing gas connections, electrifying rural India, Swachh Bharat Mission for an open defecation free country, health benefits, housing for the poor and financial inclusion et al.

Second, media interactions. Media is among the major factors that help voters form their opinion and affects voter’s perception about the leaders and political parties. According to the analysis, an incumbent’s chances of re-election increase by 28 percent if it enjoys more social media interest than the rival parties. The interactions on media are of high significance because it provides voters with the facts and figures that can help them to make informed choices.

Nowadays, apart from traditional sources of media, social media platforms are being leveraged by the political parties to interact with voters. Citizens also use social media platforms such as Twitter and Facebook to participate in political discussions and communicate with leaders. The right use of social media can help political parties swing public opinion in their favour. Although all the parties upped their social media game compared to the Gujarat elections, data shows that 51 percent of the tweets were in favour of BJP. The Google trends data also shows that the interest was in favour of BJP and not the incumbent.

Third, confidence in the party. The analysis predicted that if the citizens trust the central government and the same party rules the state then the chances of an incumbent getting re-elected increase by 9 percent. The BJP banked on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity to attract voters in Karnataka. Modi is known for connecting with the voters, and therefore he enjoys overwhelming support from the citizens. Congress President Rahul Gandhi has still not been able to build that trust in the minds of voters, and this drives down the confidence that party has in the party.

All these factors together worked in favour of BJP. The lesson in the run-up to other state elections is that parties should bank on the social issues that people face and leverage traditional and modern media platforms to garner interest in their favour.

The Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) President Dr.G Parameshwara made it clear that there won’t be any understanding between the Congress and the JD(S) in Jayanagara and Rajarajeshwari Nagar elections regardless of alliance f government in the state.

Addressing media people here on Sunday, he said that the Congress has finished the names of a contender for RR Nagar. The subject of coalition won’t raise as applicants of the two parties are in the field.

In the meantime, assigned CM and JD(S) State President H D Kumaraswamy said that nothing has been settled about the coalition in both the constituencies.

It is said that there would be an amicable battle between the applicants of these two parties in both the constituencies. In the meantime, for the Jayanagara constituencies which was cleared by the passing of present MLA and BJP applicant B N Vijayakumar, the BJP is truly considering handling his brother Prahlad Babu. The names of former chairman S K Nataraj, Tejaswi Soorya, and Union Minister Ananth Kumar’s wife Tejaswini Ananth Kumar are in the list.

BJP senior leaders have relegated the duty of RR Nagar election to Union Minister D V Sadananda Gowda and Ananth Kumar will be the in-charge for Jayanagara constituency elections.

Petrol and diesel prices have been raised for the ninth straight day across the country, just days after the government promised a solution. These nine hikes come after a 19-day hiatus when prices were kept unchanged for the May 12 Karnataka election. Petrol prices have been increased by Rs. 2.24 a litre in Delhi, Rs. 2.21 in Kolkata, Rs. 2.22 in Mumbai and Rs. 2.36 a litre in Chennai over the past nine days, data from Indian Oil Corporation shows. Diesel prices have been raised by Rs. 2.15 a litre, Rs. 2, Rs. 2.28 and Rs. 2.31 in the four cities.

On Tuesday, petrol prices were hiked in the range of 29-32 paise per litre across Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai, while diesel prices were lifted by 26-28 paise per litre, compared to the previous day.

With effect from 6 am, Tuesday, a litre of petrol was sold at Rs. 76.87 in Delhi, Rs. 79.53 in Kolkata, Rs. 84.7 in Mumbai and Rs. 79.79 in Chennai, according to Indian Oil. Diesel was sold at Rs. 68.08 per litre in Delhi, Rs. 70.63 per litre in Kolkata, Rs. 72.48 per litre in Mumbai and Rs. 71.87 per litre in Chennai. So far this year, petrol prices have shot up in the range of Rs. 6.81-7.26 per litre across the four metros, while the increase in diesel prices has been in the tune of Rs. 8.33-9.21 per litre in the wake of rising global crude prices.

Soaring crude oil prices in the past few months, coupled with weakness in the rupee against the US dollar, has led to petrol and diesel prices hitting all-time highs in Delhi and Mumbai.

Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said on Monday that the government was looking at ways to keep rising fuel prices in check. “Various alternatives are being looked at,” Mr Pradhan said, adding that he would “work out something soon”, news agency Reuters reported.

Ongoing production cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pushed crude oil prices to their highest level since late-2014. Brent has broken through $80 per barrel for the first time since November 2014. Also, the rupee has weakened nearly 6 per cent per dollar so far this year. (With agency inputs)

At least 65 people have been killed due to heatstroke in the last three days in Pakistan’s Karachi, where the temperature hit 44 degrees Celsius, media reported on Tuesday.

At least 114 bodies were brought to the social welfare group Edhi Foundation’s morgues out of which at least 65 had died from heatstroke, Xinhua news agency reported quoting the head of the foundation Faisal Edhi.

Edhi said most of the heatstroke victims had died at their home without getting any medical help on time, adding that the youngest victim was a six-year-old, while the oldest was 78.

However, health authorities in the city have denied the claim.

Pakistan Meteorological Department issued a heatwave warning for Karachi saying that the hot weather was expected to stay between 40-43 degrees in daytime throughout the week.

Local reports said that Karachi Mayor Waseem Akhtar also urged residents to stay indoors during the day to avoid heatstroke.

A severe heat wave in 2015 killed at least 1,200 people in the country.