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Motherson Sumi Systems – Outlook improving, but largely priced in

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Motherson Sumi Systems

Motherson Sumi’s (MSS) Q4FY16 adjusted EBITDA at INR10.6bn (up 17% YoY) came ~6% below our estimate due to sharp disappointment in SMR/SMP revenues. Key highlights were: 1) India business (revenue and margin) surprised positively; 2) SMRPBV’s disappointing revenue was compensated by robust margin; 3) sharp jump in SMRPBV’s order book to EUR13.5bn (EUR10.8bn YoY); and 4) robust demand outlook across key clients and geographies. Maintain ‘HOLD’ with SOTP-based target price of INR280 (standalone: 22x, SMR: 12x and SMP: 12x FY18E PER).

Operating performance: SMR/SMP revenues disappoint
Consolidated revenue at INR102bn (up 8% YoY) was ~6% below our estimate due to weaker-than-expected revenue in SMR and SMP. In EUR terms, SMR and SMP revenue grew 7% and 2% YoY, respectively (slowest in past 8-10 quarters). However, India business surprised positively with 13% YoY revenue jump led by higher share of new models and rising content per vehicle. EBITDA margin of India business at 20.9% (up 240bps QoQ) and SMR business at 12.5 % (up 180bps QoQ) surprised positively.

India: Worst is behind; SMR/SMP margin trend key monitorable
After 4 quarters of subdued growth, India revenue grew 13% YoY. We estimate 17%/22% revenue growth for FY17/18 as the market share loss phase is behind. In SMR/SMP, ramp up of new plants remains key to revenue growth and margin improvement. We estimate ~15% revenue growth for SMR/SMP in FY17/18 each.

Outlook and valuations: Positives factored in; maintain ‘HOLD’
We believe the earnings downgrade cycle is largely behind. For India, we expect revenue growth to track volumes going ahead. We estimate FY16-18 consolidated EPS CAGR of 26% with ~36% RoE. RoCE is anticipated to catapult to ~36% in FY18 from 26% in FY16 and net debt/equity is likely to improve as well to 0.3x from 0.7x over the same period. Ergo, we revise up our target PE multiples for standalone business to 22x (from 20x) and of SMR/SMP businesses to 12x (from 10x). However, the recent stock price surge captures the positives. Hence, we maintain ‘HOLD/SU’ with revised target price of INR280 (INR248 earlier). At CMP, the stock trades at FY18E PER of 17x.

Kerala poll: Sreesanth clean bowled

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Sreesanth

Thiruvananthapuram: Former cricketer S Sreesanth, who recently joined the BJP, was on Thursday finished at the third spot in his Thiruvananthapuram constituency in the Kerala assembly elections.

State health minister VS Shivakumar retained the seat.

Sivakumar polled 46,474 votes, winning over his nearest rival Antony Raju by a margin of 10,905 votes. Raju polled 35,569 votes.

Sreesanth came third with 34,764 votes.

As of latest media reports, the LDF is leading in 89 seats, UDF in 49 and BJP in 1.

Sreesanth was given a life ban by the BCCI in September 2013 after being found guilty of spot-fixing in that year’s IPL tournament. However, a Delhi court exonerated Sreesanth along with two other cricketers–Ankeet Chavan and Ajit Chandila–in July 2015 in the high-profile IPL match-fixing case which had blown the lid off cricket’s biggest scandal in recent times.

The 33-year-old had earlier said his name had been cleared by the court in the match-fixing case and he was not worried about any political attack over the controversy.

(Agencies)

TMC in WB; BJP in Assam; AIADMK in TN; LDF in Kerala

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West Bengal Tamil Nadu

New Delhi: The BJP appears to have stormed Assam unseating Congress which also looks like losing Kerala as incumbent TMC and AIADMK are cruising comfortably to retain power in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

In the Union Territory of Puducherry, Congress-DMK alliance was ahead in the 30-member assembly closely followed by AINRC headed by Chief Minister and former Congressman N Rangaswamy.

Assam is on the road to making history with BJP set to get its first government in the North East by dislodging Congress which has been in power for three consecutive terms.

The saffron party was leading in 73 of the 126 seats while the ruling Congress was trailing far behind at 33. The ADUF led by Badaruddin Ajmal was ahead in 13 seats. ‘Others’ were leading in eight seats.

In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC maintained its hold against an unlikely alliance of CPI(M) and Congress and her look like bettering its last election performance. The TMC was ahead in 216 seats out of total 294. The Left parties are leading in 30 and Congress in 37 while BJP was ahead in 9 seats.

As per trends, J Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK appears to be winning Tamil Nadu for a straight second term, bucking the tradition since 1989 when a ruling party has not returned to power. AIADMK’s performance has also disproved several exit poll predictions which had tipped the DMK-Congress alliance to come to power.

The AIADMK was leading in 126 seats while DMK-Congress alliance was ahead in 91 seats. While the third front of parties headed by DMDK’s Vijaykant failed to make any impact, the PMK which contested all the 234 seats could lead only in seven seats.

In Kerala, the Left Front was well on the road to dislodge Congress from power keeping up the tradition of voting out the incumbent government. The Left Democratic Front was ahead in 88 of the 140 seats while the ruling UDF was behind at 50.

According to trends, BJP may make a maiden entry in the state with the party said to be leading in one seat.

In Puducherry, the Congress-DMK alliance was leading in 13 of the 30 seats. The ruling AINRC was leading in 12 seats while AIADMK was ahead in two seats.

(Agencies)

NBCC – On sound turf

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NBCC

NBCC maintained strong execution run rate and posted 39% YoY jump in revenue growth for Q4FY16. One-off employee costs led to reported EBIDTA margin falling 220bps YoY to 7.8%. However, adjusted PAT was in line with estimates. Aided by order intake worth INR175bn during FY16, the company’s order book stands at ~INR310bn (book-to-bill at 5.3x) with further ~INR300bn projects at various stages of approval. Robust revenue visibility, cash-rich balance sheet and near monopoly in redevelopment space will enable NBCC to post 30% plus PAT CAGR over FY16-18E. Maintain ‘BUY’ with a revised target price of INR1,267 (INR1,278 earlier).

Robust execution continues
Top line surged 39% YoY to INR23bn in Q4FY16 (our estimate INR22.6bn) with ~INR3bn contribution from Kidwai Nagar project (INR9bn in FY16). One-time provision for post retirement medical benefits as well as special bonus to employees on achievement of ‘Navratna’ status impacted margins. Reported PAT, at INR1.4bn, was up 4% YoY; adjusted for one-offs, it would have been in line with estimates. The company delivered 32% top-line growth in FY16 with adjusted post growing ~20%.

Strong revenue visibility, opportunities galore
NBCC ended the year with order book of INR310bn (FY15 order book at ~INR193bn). In addition, projects worth ~INR300bn (including 2 projects from DDA, government colonies redevelopment in Delhi) are at an advanced stage of approval. Management expects sanction for redevelopment of government colonies in Delhi to come by July end. These projects will require initial investment of INR3-5bn.

Outlook and valuations: Attractive; maintain ‘BUY’
Operating leverage and increasing share of redevelopment projects will improve margin trajectory going ahead. Burgeoning order book, robust return ratios (25%+ RoEs) and cash-rich balance sheet make NBCC a worthwhile bet in our view. We maintain ‘BUY’ with a revised target price of INR1,267, based on 27x FY18E EPS.

Allahabad Bank – No cheer, all staid;

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Allahabad Bank

Allahabad Bank (ALBK) reported INR5.8bn loss in Q4FY16 impacted by muted revenue momentum and blow up in asset quality. Slippages spiked to INR74bn (>19% versus 4-5% run rate in past 6 quarters). Revenue momentum was tepid with NII slipping >12% YoY. However, controlled opex cushioned profitability. Factoring in higher-than-anticipated credit cost, we prune our FY17/18E earnings by ~10%/9%. On operational front ALBK’s competitive prowess will be severely impacted given diversion towards clean up coupled with capital constraints for growth (which may not be forthcoming for mid-sized PSU banks) thus we see operating profitability to remain under pressure. Maintain ‘HOLD’.

Slippages spike further; outlook cautious
Slippages catapulted to INR74bn, with INR9.75bn on account of banks AQR and INR49bn accounts related to other banks AQR. Management highlighted things are unlikely to improve soon as balance sheet clean up continues (INR87.2bn of SMA-II accounts need monitoring). Additionally, performance of accounts under 5:25 scheme (INR14.6bn), SDR cases (INR17.8bn), higher exposure to stressed segments (I&S and power) and overall elevated stressed assets (NNPLs plus restructured book) at > 12% keeps us guarded.

Revenue traction drags, lower opex cushions profitability
Soft NII growth (down >12% YoY on muted loan growth and softer NIMs) fed into slower revenue traction, in turn leading to >9% YoY decline in core operating profitability. Lower opex (down > 5% YoY) cushioned profitability. Given structural challenges, we see operating profitability remaining under pressure.

Outlook and valuations: Structural challenges lurk; maintain ‘HOLD’
Apart from high asset quality stress, mid-size PSU banks are hampered on operational front too. We perceive clear demarcation between large and mid-size PSU banks and expect pressure to continue in latter. Given increasing BASEL III requirement and limited capital support from government, dilution risk is imminent at weak multiples, which will be detrimental to shareholders’ returns. The stock is trading at 0.5x FY18E P/BV (post dilution). We maintain ‘HOLD/SU’ with TP of INR58.

Samajwadi Party names Amar Singh, Beni Verma for RS election

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amar singh

Lucknow: Over six years after it expelled Amar Singh, the Samajwadi Party today “unanimously” declared him as its candidate for the Rajya Sabha polls, setting the stage for his possible return to the party.

The party also nominated six others, including former Union minister Beni Prasad Verma, an influential Kurmi leader who recently quit Congress and returned to the Samajwadi Party, and realtor Sanjay Seth for the biennial polls scheduled next month.

When asked about when would Singh, a former confidante of Mulayam Singh Yadav, rejoin the party, Shivpal Singh Yadav, a UP Minister and brother of party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav said,” It will be decided by Netaji (Mulayam) and Amar Singh. We have earlier also sent Congress leaders Pramod Tiwari and P L Punia to Rajya Sabha.”

Amar Singh along with his close associate Jaya Prada were expelled from the Samajwadi Party in February, 2010. He floated his own political party, Rashtriya Lok Manch, in 2011, and fielded a large number of candidates in 2012 assembly polls. However, none of his candidates won. He had joined the Rashtriya Lok Dal and contested the 2014 Lok Sabha poll from Fatehpur Sikri but lost.

Samajwadi Party denied there were “differences” over some candidates and claimed the decision on fielding them for the Rajya Sabha polls was “unanimous”.”The SP parliamentary board has unanimously decided seven names for Rajya Sabha. There were no differences and party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav was authorised to take the final decision. The names were read out in the meeting,” Shivpal, also the party spokesman, told reporters.

The board has taken the decision after much thought and it will strengthen the party, he said, refuting reports of certain “objections” raised over some candidates at the meeting held today.

The seven candidates are — Beni Prasad Verma, Amar Singh, Sanjay Seth, Sukhram Singh Yadav, Reoti Raman Singh, Vishwambhar Prasad Nishad and Arvind Pratap Singh.

Seth is a controversial Lucknow-based builder, who was earlier recommended to be nominated an MLC by the ruling party but his name was not approved by Governor Ram Naik. The governor had also rejected the government’s proposal to nominate Rajvijay Singh and Kamlesh Pathak to the Legislative Council, contending that they did not qualify for it due to criminal cases pending against them.
Both Ranvijay Singh and Kamlesh Pathak figure in the list of eight candidates for the Legislative Council polls.

Others are Balram Yadav, Shatrudra Prakash, Yashwant Singh, Bukkal Nawab, Ram Sundar Das and Jagjivan Ram.

The Governor had clarified that under Article 171(5) of the Constitution, MLCs are to be nominated from five fields — literature, art, science, cooperative movement and social service, and these belonged to none of these category.

The support of 37 MLAs would be needed for a candidate’s victory the Rajya Sabha polls.

As per the existing strength of different parties in the 403-member state Assembly, Samajwadi Party with 227 MLAs would be able to get six nominees elected to the Rajya Sabha, the BSP two, and BJP one. Of the nine seats falling vacant, BSP has six and SP three.

(PTI)

MCD bypolls: AAP wins 5, Cong- 4 and BJP-3

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compulsory voting Gujarat

New Delhi: Aam Aadmi Party won five and Congress won four wards each while the BJP won from three wards in the MCD bypolls for 13 wards, results of which were declared today.

Independent candidate Rajender Singh Tanwar won from Bhati ward where the maximum votes had been polled in the bypolls held on Sunday last.

AAP candidate Abhishek Bidhuri won from Tekhand ward by a margin of 1555 votes defeating BJP candidate Sunil Verma. Other winners from the party were Ramesh from Matiala ward, Anil Malik from Nanakpura and Ashok Kumar from Vikas Nagar ward, election officials said.

Congress candidate Pankaj won from the Jhilmil ward by a margin of 2419 votes. Pankaj defeated ex MLA and BJP candidate Jitender Singh Shunty. Congress candidate Yogita Rathi won from the women reserved seat of Munirka. The party candidates also won from Khichdipur and Qumraddin Nagar.

BJP candidate Bhupinder Mohan Bhandari won from Shalimar Bagh by a margin of 1451 votes. Party candidate Dr Mahender Nagpal won Wazirpur ward by 3608 votes while Nawada candidate Krishan Gehlot won by 4843 votes.

(Agencies)

Swamy to PM: Rajan ‘mentally not fully Indian’, sack him immediately

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subramanian swamy

New Delhi: In a fresh salvo at RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, BJP MP Subramanian Swamy has written to Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking immediate sacking of the former IMF Chief Economist while alleging he was “mentally not fully Indian” and has “wilfully” wrecked the economy.

Following up his barb against Rajan at the end of Parliament session last week, Swamy yesterday wrote to Prime Minister seeking termination of Rajan’s services with immediate effect.

“The reason why I recommend this is that I am shocked by the wilful and apparently deliberate attempt by Dr Rajan to wreck the Indian economy,” he wrote adding his concept of raising interest rates to contain inflation was “disastrous.”

Also, bad loans with public sector banks has doubled to Rs 3.5 lakh crore in two years, he said.

Rajan was appointed RBI Governor by the previous UPA government in September 2013 for a three-year term, which can be extended.

“These actions of Dr Rajan lead me to believe that he is acting more as a disrupter of the Indian economy than the person who wants the Indian economy to improve.

“Moreover he is in this country on a Green Card provided by the US government and therefore mentally not fully Indian. Otherwise why would he renew his Green Card as RBI Governor by making the mandatory annual visit to the US to keep the Green Card current?” he wrote.

Swamy had last week stated that Rajan was “not appropriate for the country” as he had in the garb of controlling inflation raised interest rates leading to “collapse of industry and rise of unemployment in the economy.”

“The sooner he is sent back to Chicago, the better it would be,” he had told reporters in Parliament House.

Rajan is the on-leave Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business.

After assuming charge as RBI governor in September 2013, Rajan gradually raised the short-term lending rate from 7.25 per cent to 8 per cent and had retained the high rates throughout 2014.

He kept the rates high, citing inflationary concerns despite intense pressure from the Finance Ministry and the industry for softening them with a view to boosting growth.

The Governor began the process of lowering the rates in January 2015 and since then it has come down by 1.50 per cent to 6.50 per cent.

Swamy in the letter to Modi said the BJP came to power under his inspiring leadership. “I cannot see why someone appointed by the UPA Government who is apparently working against Indian economic interests should be kept in this post when we have so many nationalist minded experts available in this country for the RBI Governorship.”

He urged Modi “to terminate the appointment of Dr Raghuram Rajan in the national interest.”

Swamy, who was earlier this month nominated to Rajya Sabha by the BJP government, said Rajan’s concept of containing inflation by raising interest rates was “disastrous.”

“When the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) started to decline due to induced recession in the small and medium industry, he shifted the target from WPI to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which has not however declined because of retail prices. On the contrary it has risen.

“Had Dr Raghuram Rajan stuck to WPI interest rates would have been much lower today and given huge relief to small and medium industries. Instead they are squeezed further and consequent increasing unemployment,” he wrote.

Rajan, Swamy said, was “acting more as a disrupter of the Indian economy than the person who wants the Indian economy to improve.”

(Agencies)

Asaram Bapu’s supporters attack police, seven injured

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Asaram Bapu

New Delhi: Police on Monday said they had registered a case of rioting against supporters of spiritual guru Asaram Bapu who attacked police personnel overnight here, injuring seven policemen.

According to police, the police personnel were injured when some 2,000 people demanding Asaram Bapu’s release stoned the Parliament Street police station in the heart of the city on Sunday night.

A few police vehicles were also damaged in the protest. No arrests have been made yet, a police officer told IANS.

Asaram Bapu, lodged in Jodhpur Jail in Rajasthan after his arrest in 2013, has been accused of sexually assaulting a 16-year-old girl. He has denied the charge.

(Agencies)

Assembly polls for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry begin

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polls

Chennai: With the Election Commission having made elaborate arrangements for free and fair voting, assembly polls in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry began on Monday amid tight security.

In Tamil Nadu, 233 seats would go to polls, with voting for Aravakurichi constituency having been deferred.

Kerala would see polling for its 140 seats assembly. In Puducherry, 30 seats would go for polls.

The polling started at 7 a.m. and would end at 6 p.m.

All non-sensitive booths would have a policeman each for providing security and central paramilitary force personnel would give security cover for the sensitive and hypersensitive booths.

Meanwhile, the election authorities are bracing for the possibility of unusual rains today.

An unseasonal low pressure area has formed over the South West Bay of Bengal and adjoining Srilanka, that is set to bring heavy to rather very heavy rainfall from today for two days in many places in the state, especially in southern and coastal districts, as predicted by the Meteorological Department in Chennai.

The Election Commission has made additional efforts in the polling booths to provide cover for the voters to come and exercise their franchise without getting drenched in the possible rain.

In another development, the AIADMK and the DMK had, through email, responded to the show-cause notices issued by the Election Commission about the violation of its guidelines on promises of freebies as made in the manifestos of the two parties.

The notices were issued seeking clarification on the ways and means of fulfilling the promises of the huge dole outs by the two parties.

The Income Tax officials had asked the authorities in Tirupur to move the three trucks carrying Rs. 570 crore to the chest of the State Bank of India (SBI) in Coimbatore for issuing search warrant under the IT Act for further probe.

The sleuths of the tax body along with the team of officials delegated by the Election Commission are probing the transfer of the huge sum from Coimbatore.

The bank claimed that it was a normal transfer of cash, though the investigators say original documents to substantiate the transfer were lacking. The three trucks were detained by the Election Commission flying squad near Tirupur.

The Election Commission introduced many innovative measures during this election in Tamil Nadu, including getting booth slips through the helpline number 1950 in electronic mode, knowing the queue status before polling booths through smart phone apps and getting navigation help through Google maps to locate the booths by the voters by feeding their election identity card number in the apps.

For the first time in the electoral history of India, more than 1.64 crore voters made a pledge on last Tuesday that they would not accept or give money for voting, as money power in election is a big menace in the region.

Thousands of youth volunteers at grass-root levels are also being pressed into service to help the election authorities to ensure ethical voting and to remind people to come out and exercise their franchise today.

The Kerala Government has made elaborate arrangements for smooth and peaceful conduct of polls.

In all, 2.56 crore electors including 1.33 crore females are expected to cast votes.

A total of 1, 203 candidates including 109 females are in the fray. There are 21,646 polling booths across the state.

Special arrangements have been made for sensitive and vulnerable polling stations, especially in Kannur district.

Over 9 lakh voters will exercise their franchise in Puducherry today. Voting will take place in 930 polling stations spread over four regions of the Union Territory.

5,382 officials are deputed for polling duties. Over 6,000 police personnel including the central para military forces will provide security for assembly polls.

Meanwhile, the Election Department introduced a mobile application which would give all information regarding today’s poll to voters. The app would provide details of EPIC Cards, polling booth location, constituency-wise voters list and even the number of voters in queue at any polling station at a given time.

The Commission has identified 148 polling stations and deployed micro observers and Central forces for additional security.

(ANI)

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