The drama revolving around the Karnataka state elections refuses to fade away. The assembly election results were not able to provide a clear mandate to any party. The BJP emerged as the single largest party but popular rivals Congress and JD-S forged an alliance within hours of the announcement of the result after realising that the coalition will have the numbers to form the government.

This paved the way for the controversy about who should first be invited by the Governor: the party with the largest number of seats or the post-election alliance with majority seats. The Governor sided with the BJP, and B.S. Yeddyurappa was sworn in as the Chief Minister. But this decision was challenged by the Congress and petitions were filed in the Supreme Court. The Court ordered a floor test but Yeddyurappa resigned before this could be conducted.

Amidst all this chaos and despite the final verdict, BJP has emerged as a clear winner. Its vote share increased from 19.9 percent to 36.2 percent, and the party was able to up its tally by almost 64 seats and gained the much-needed momentum for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. On the other hand, Congress and JD-S both have suffered losses in the number of seats — that of the Congress going down from 122 to 78 and the JD-S securing three less that the 37 seats it had in the outgoing house.

One of the biggest questions that emerges from these results is what went wrong for Congress or to put it in other words, how was the BJP able to swing public support in its favour? Was the electorate just living up to its reputation of not re-electing the ruling party since 1985 or was it the way parties conducted their election campaigns? The search for the answer leads us to the bigger question of what makes Indian voters tick.

An analysis of the electoral outcome provides the answer. The analysis predicted that Congress party has just 18 percent chance of coming back to power in Karnataka. It took into account a) average growth in per capita GSDP for the last three years, b) the average change in Social Progress scores for the last three years, c) consumer and business confidence and d) media presence to understand the voting dynamics of world’s largest democracy.

The growth in per capita GSDP and change in regional social progress reflect how the economic and social benefits accrued to the citizens due to the policies of the state government. Consumer confidence and business confidence captured the trust that people have in the central government. The last indicator captured the interest enjoyed by the political parties.

There are three things that shape up the voting behaviour in India.

First, social issues. The analysis brings out that while casting their vote, people keep in mind two major social issues – inclusion and wellbeing. Inclusion encompasses indicators that capture how acceptable a region is towards minorities and other socially backward groups, and how they treat women. An inclusive incumbent increases its chances of coming back to power by 3.6 percent. And if the voters feel that the party will work towards basic wellbeing such as healthcare and education, its chances move up by 2.1 percent.

The BJP was able to target both issues. The BJP rallies focussed on the pro-poor initiatives and welfare schemes. The issues included providing gas connections, electrifying rural India, Swachh Bharat Mission for an open defecation free country, health benefits, housing for the poor and financial inclusion et al.

Second, media interactions. Media is among the major factors that help voters form their opinion and affects voter’s perception about the leaders and political parties. According to the analysis, an incumbent’s chances of re-election increase by 28 percent if it enjoys more social media interest than the rival parties. The interactions on media are of high significance because it provides voters with the facts and figures that can help them to make informed choices.

Nowadays, apart from traditional sources of media, social media platforms are being leveraged by the political parties to interact with voters. Citizens also use social media platforms such as Twitter and Facebook to participate in political discussions and communicate with leaders. The right use of social media can help political parties swing public opinion in their favour. Although all the parties upped their social media game compared to the Gujarat elections, data shows that 51 percent of the tweets were in favour of BJP. The Google trends data also shows that the interest was in favour of BJP and not the incumbent.

Third, confidence in the party. The analysis predicted that if the citizens trust the central government and the same party rules the state then the chances of an incumbent getting re-elected increase by 9 percent. The BJP banked on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity to attract voters in Karnataka. Modi is known for connecting with the voters, and therefore he enjoys overwhelming support from the citizens. Congress President Rahul Gandhi has still not been able to build that trust in the minds of voters, and this drives down the confidence that party has in the party.

All these factors together worked in favour of BJP. The lesson in the run-up to other state elections is that parties should bank on the social issues that people face and leverage traditional and modern media platforms to garner interest in their favour.

The Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) President Dr.G Parameshwara made it clear that there won’t be any understanding between the Congress and the JD(S) in Jayanagara and Rajarajeshwari Nagar elections regardless of alliance f government in the state.

Addressing media people here on Sunday, he said that the Congress has finished the names of a contender for RR Nagar. The subject of coalition won’t raise as applicants of the two parties are in the field.

In the meantime, assigned CM and JD(S) State President H D Kumaraswamy said that nothing has been settled about the coalition in both the constituencies.

It is said that there would be an amicable battle between the applicants of these two parties in both the constituencies. In the meantime, for the Jayanagara constituencies which was cleared by the passing of present MLA and BJP applicant B N Vijayakumar, the BJP is truly considering handling his brother Prahlad Babu. The names of former chairman S K Nataraj, Tejaswi Soorya, and Union Minister Ananth Kumar’s wife Tejaswini Ananth Kumar are in the list.

BJP senior leaders have relegated the duty of RR Nagar election to Union Minister D V Sadananda Gowda and Ananth Kumar will be the in-charge for Jayanagara constituency elections.

Petrol and diesel prices have been raised for the ninth straight day across the country, just days after the government promised a solution. These nine hikes come after a 19-day hiatus when prices were kept unchanged for the May 12 Karnataka election. Petrol prices have been increased by Rs. 2.24 a litre in Delhi, Rs. 2.21 in Kolkata, Rs. 2.22 in Mumbai and Rs. 2.36 a litre in Chennai over the past nine days, data from Indian Oil Corporation shows. Diesel prices have been raised by Rs. 2.15 a litre, Rs. 2, Rs. 2.28 and Rs. 2.31 in the four cities.

On Tuesday, petrol prices were hiked in the range of 29-32 paise per litre across Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai, while diesel prices were lifted by 26-28 paise per litre, compared to the previous day.

With effect from 6 am, Tuesday, a litre of petrol was sold at Rs. 76.87 in Delhi, Rs. 79.53 in Kolkata, Rs. 84.7 in Mumbai and Rs. 79.79 in Chennai, according to Indian Oil. Diesel was sold at Rs. 68.08 per litre in Delhi, Rs. 70.63 per litre in Kolkata, Rs. 72.48 per litre in Mumbai and Rs. 71.87 per litre in Chennai. So far this year, petrol prices have shot up in the range of Rs. 6.81-7.26 per litre across the four metros, while the increase in diesel prices has been in the tune of Rs. 8.33-9.21 per litre in the wake of rising global crude prices.

Soaring crude oil prices in the past few months, coupled with weakness in the rupee against the US dollar, has led to petrol and diesel prices hitting all-time highs in Delhi and Mumbai.

Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said on Monday that the government was looking at ways to keep rising fuel prices in check. “Various alternatives are being looked at,” Mr Pradhan said, adding that he would “work out something soon”, news agency Reuters reported.

Ongoing production cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pushed crude oil prices to their highest level since late-2014. Brent has broken through $80 per barrel for the first time since November 2014. Also, the rupee has weakened nearly 6 per cent per dollar so far this year. (With agency inputs)

At least 65 people have been killed due to heatstroke in the last three days in Pakistan’s Karachi, where the temperature hit 44 degrees Celsius, media reported on Tuesday.

At least 114 bodies were brought to the social welfare group Edhi Foundation’s morgues out of which at least 65 had died from heatstroke, Xinhua news agency reported quoting the head of the foundation Faisal Edhi.

Edhi said most of the heatstroke victims had died at their home without getting any medical help on time, adding that the youngest victim was a six-year-old, while the oldest was 78.

However, health authorities in the city have denied the claim.

Pakistan Meteorological Department issued a heatwave warning for Karachi saying that the hot weather was expected to stay between 40-43 degrees in daytime throughout the week.

Local reports said that Karachi Mayor Waseem Akhtar also urged residents to stay indoors during the day to avoid heatstroke.

A severe heat wave in 2015 killed at least 1,200 people in the country.

Karnataka’s Chief Minister-designate H.D. Kumaraswamy on Monday said that he had got a chance to serve the people again by God’s grace and his parents’ blessings despite a fractured mandate in the May 12 elections.

“Although the people did not bless me and our party with a clear mandate, I have got an opportunity again to serve them by God’s grace and my parent’s blessings,” Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) state President Kumaraswamy told reporters here.

On a visit to his home town Holenarsipur, about 180 km from Bengaluru, Kumaraswamy prayed at the Ranganatha Swamy and Laskhminarasimha Swamy temples here for the success of the JD-S-Congress coalition government that will come to power when he takes oath on Wednesday.

“A great responsibility is being given to me again to serve the people, especially farmers, women and youths. I am sure I will rise to the occasion with God’s blessings, people’s wishes and the support of the Congress,” said Kumaraswamy.

Clarifying that he was not becoming the Chief Minister for the second time for the sake of power, the JD-S leader said that he accepted the Congress offer to head the coalition government to work for the people’s welfare.

“This is big challenge. As I know the problems of the people, I will strive to address them,” added Kumaraswamy.

Governor Vajubjai Vala invited the 58-year-old JD-S legislative party leader on Saturday to form the coalition government after the fall of the three-day BJP government led by Chief Minister B.S. Yeddyurappa, who resigned even before the trust vote was conducted since his party was seven MLAs short of the halfway mark to prove simple majority in a house of 222 members.

According to the Chief Minister’s Office, Kumaraswamy will take oath at 4.30 p.m. on Wednesday in front of the state Secretariat (Vidhan Soudha) in Bengaluru in the presence of national leaders and about a lakh people.

This is the second time that Kumaraswamy, the third son of JD-S supremo and former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda and Chennamma, will be the Chief Minister, and 12 years after the JD-S formed a coalition government with the BJP on February 4, 2006. He occupied the CM office for 20 months till October 9, 2007, during his earlier stint.

“I am not the only one taking oath tomorrow. There will be others also,” said JD(S) state president and chief minister designate H D Kumaraswamy.

He was speaking to reporters on Tuesday, May 22 here.

He did not give details, but said few including some MLAs from Congress may take oath with him. He is scheduled to take oath as chief minister in front of Vidhana Soudha at 4.30 pm on Wednesday, May 22. More than four lacs of people are expected to witness the event.

Kumaraswamy said that he will finalise the names of MLAs taking oath after consulting Congress leaders K C Venugopal and Siddaramaiah.

Kumaraswamy had earlier said that he is the only person taking oath on Wednesday with others likely to take oath after the trust vote.

Kumaraswamy is visiting Dharmasthala and Sringeri today.

Kumaraswamy said, “his decision to head a JDS-Congress coalition was necessary to ‘correct’ the political situation in the country .”
Karnataka’s chief minister-elect HD Kumaraswamy, says that his decision to head a JDS-Congress coalition was necessary to “correct” the political situation in the country and not to fulfil a personal ambition. He said that BJP was still trying to lure MLAs from the coalition ahead of the vote of confidence that he had planned to take on May 24.

Wanted to become king through the mandate of the people, not like this. The first time, in 2006, I became CM due to political developments. Today also, my situation is the same. It is not because of the blessings of the people. Why didn’t the people of Karnataka understand what I feel? Why didn’t they have belief in me? I am feeling terrible about that. I am not a politician, I am an emotional being. I know what people’s troubles are, what their expectations are. If I have to bring in solutions… people have seen both the BJP and Congress; I thought people will give me a chance. But I (JDS) got lesser seats than last time.
This is not my personal option. Today, the country is in anticipation of a new change, a section of people are expecting a change.

Several opposition leaders also feel that the situation is such that the country and society are being divided. They want to join hands and correct it. I am responding to this feeling and sending a political message to the rest of the country. I was not desperate to become the chief minister. I have already been the CM, no one can take the ‘former chief minister’ tag away from me.

They (Congress) came forward voluntarily and offered unconditional support to a five-year term headed by me. Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad called me and said they had taken a unanimous decision on this. I asked for time, but he said I had to decide immediately. I went to my father (former PM HD Deve Gowda) and said these are the two options, and I followed what he decided. In 2006, when I went with the BJP, doubts were raised across the country about Deve Gowda and that ‘father-son’ were doing drama to get the chief minister’s post. It is a black mark I have put on him and I had to make that go away. So, despite pressure on me from multiple sides, I have set out to give a message to the country. At least now, let that black dot be wiped out.

The BJP didn’t get to 104 seats on its own effort. There was a systematic attempt to tell the Muslim community that we (JDS) would go with BJP. It is not that it is Congress party, but some people did. A team of mullahs and retired Muslim officers went all over the state to say don’t vote for JDS. It is irrelevant now who encouraged them to do so. But whom this has impacted is there for all to see. It is because of the Muslim community’s decision that BJP has got 104 seats. It is also the Muslim community’s decision which has brought me to this situation. It has harmed you (the community), not me.

What is the message you are setting out to give the country with a coalition with such bitterness?
During the election (campaign) and otherwise we have mounted agitations, made statements against each other. But the country’s situation is such that a message of secular parties must be sent. There is an undeclared emergency in this country. The central government is misusing institutions and the kind of efforts they have made, nobody has done in 70 years. This has to be corrected. Four years ago, they promised a big change and won. There has been no change. Now they are asking for another five years and that 2024 will see change. We, all regional parties and Congress, have to join hands and fight this, in my opinion. And that is the message we are sending from Karnataka. Several major changes in national politics have come from our state, 100% this (the coalition government) is a turning point for the 2019 election.

He is a youngster. In today’s political environment, he should take the lead. My suggestion is that the decisions he takes should not give any kind of weapon to our opponents. He should work in such a way that people will support and praise him.

Definitely, there will be a role. They have set aside all differences and come forward to hold my hand. I am responding to that. I am asking our BJP friends to keep the welfare of the state in mind, and not party enmity, during the vote of confidence.
They (the BJP) are still trying to lure our MLAs and defeat me. The efforts they made to break us are there for all to see. But we will win.

Congress will get the post of speaker and a deputy chief minister in Karnataka, the first names that party president Rahul Gandhi will decide in the coming hours ahead of HD Kumaraswamy’s swearing-in as chief minister + of the Congress-JD(S) coalition government on Wednesday.
The chief minister-designate met Rahul and his mother, UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi, at the Congress chief’s residence here on Monday evening.
The visit was a courtesy call to invite the Congress leaders for the swearing-in. It was preceded by a half-hour meeting with pre-poll ally and BSP chief Mayawati, JD (S) secretary general Danish Ali said. Rahul and Kumaraswamy alluded to the history of acrimony between Congress and JD(S) to say they should forget the past and look to the future.
Congress sources said the party’s entire focus was on Kumaraswamy’s oath, election of the speaker and the confidence motion, and that no formal negotiations were held on the specifics of power-sharing.
The reason, sources said, was that any formal discussion would spill over in public and create a controversy which the Congress-JD(S) combine can ill-afford given the backdrop of the hastily cobbled alliance and drama over government formation.

What the by-elections or the Rajya Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh couldn’t, the result of the Karnataka polls may do – bring Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav to the same stage at the same time.

The heads of the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party respectively have been invited by JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy for his swearing-in ceremony as Karnataka chief minister on Wednesday, and the offices of the two have said that they would attend.

The two parties had forged an understanding during the bypolls in Gorakhpur and Phulpur in March and fought the Rajya Sabha polls together. They have also confirmed that the alliance would continue till 2019 polls, but the two leaders haven’t shared the stage even once since then.

An invite was also sent to Delhi chief minister and Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal, whose party had fought the Karnataka election but lost its deposits on all 29 seats.

Kumaraswamy, who is in Delhi to meet Congress chief Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi in Delhi on Monday to finalize the distribution of portfolios, will first call on Mayawati. The JD(S) and the BSP had fought the Karnataka Elections as a pre-poll alliance and the latter had bagged one seat.

The lone BSP MLA in Karnataka, N Mahesh, is all set to get a berth in the Kumaraswamy Cabinet. Mahesh who also heads the BSP state unit won the Kollegal seat by defeating his rival AR Krishna from Congress by a margin of 19,454 votes.

When the other JDS and Congress MLAs were holed up at a resort in Bengaluru, Mahesh was staying with senior BSP leader Ashok Siddharth at a guest house in Bengaluru and had allegedly rejected the offer to support the BJP.

Apart from Mayawati, Akhilesh and Kejriwal, others who are invited for the swearing-in ceremony include Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Chandrababu Naidu and Mamata Banerjee.

The rise of Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka may act as a platform to unite opposition parties, especially the regional parties to play a bigger role in the national arena during parliamentary elections in 2019.

Pakistan’s Punjab province government has released Rs 20 million to renovate a Krishna temple in Rawalpindi city and expand it to accommodate more Hindu worshippers on festivals and religious occasions, a media report said on Sunday.

Krishna temple is the only functioning Hindu temple in the twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad. There are two prayers held at the temple every day one in the morning and one in the evening which are attended by six or seven people.

Mohammad Asif, the Evacuee Trust Property Board (ETPB) Deputy Administrator, said the government has released Rs 20 million to reconstruct the temple at the request of a Member of Provincial Assembly, Dawn reported.

He said reconstruction work would begin soon. A team has visited the site and pointed out a plan to start work. The main room where idols are kept will be sealed until reconstruction ends, the paper said. “Once reconstructed, the temple will be able to accommodate more people,” Asif was quoted as saying by the paper.

The official said the temple could accommodate the local Hindu community from the twin cities and nearby areas. The small temple was built by Kanji Mal and Ujagar Mal Ram Rachpal in 1897 to serve people in nearby areas. However, after Partition the street temple in Saddar became the only place of worship for Rawalpindi’s Hindus.

The temple was reopened after partition in 1949; it was operated by local Hindus before being handed over to the ETPB in 1970. Until the 1980s, even diplomats living in Islamabad visited the temple to pray. Local Hindus have said the temple’s area should be expanded.

Jag Mohan Arora said the temple courtyard, which can only accommodate 100 or so people, should be expanded, and shops next to the temple that the ETPB has leased to local traders should be retrieved to expand the front of the building. “At present the front of the temple is very small. The ETPB should vacate nearby shops that have been rented,” Arora said.