Growing warnings by scientists of an impending high-magnitude earthquake in the Himalayas have got further credence from yet another study by Indian researchers.

The new study, led by seismologist C.P. Rajendran of the Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research in Bengaluru, says the “enormous stacking up of strain in the region portends at least one earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or more in one of the overlapping segments of the central Himalayas anytime in the future”.

According to the study, published in “Geological Journal”, the researchers critically evaluated existing databases along with the data from two newly explored locales — Mohana Khola in far western Nepal and Chorgalia, which falls within the Indian border, to determine the timing of the last faulting event on the frontal thrust of the central Himalayas.

The researchers followed the local geology and structural map published by the Geological Survey of India, besides using Google Earth and imagery from Indian space agency ISRO’s Cartosat-1 satellite.

The analysis, the researchers say, “compels us to conclude that a great earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or more that occurred between 1315 and 1440 had unzipped a stretch of about 600 km (the length of central seismic gap from Bhatpur to beyond Mohana Khola) in the central Himalayas with an average slip (or displacement) of 15 metres”.

The present study underlines the fact after this massive earthquake, the frontal thrust in the central Himalayas (covering parts of India and eastern Nepal) has remained seismically quiet for 600 to 700 years, implying enormous build-up of strain in the region.

“An earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or more is overdue in this part of the Himalayas, given the long-elapsed time.

“Considering this potentially high seismic risk, this will be particularly catastrophic for a region marked by an ever-growing population and unhindered expansion of the built-up environment, to be contrasted with poor preparedness to meet this contingency,” Rajendran told this correspondent.

Roger Bilham, a US geophysicist at the University of Colorado whose years of work laid the basis for the current knowledge about earthquakes in the Himalayan region, fully supports the Indian researchers’ findings.

“They are undeniably correct in concluding that should an earthquake occur now, its magnitude could equal 8.5,” Bilham told this correspondent in an email.

“My own evaluation of the available evidence suggests their estimate is conservative, and should the rupture zone extend from east of Almora to west of Pockara (Nepal) the earthquake will exceed 8.7,” he added

The findings by Rajendran and his team confirm two other studies by Indian geophysicists — one led by K.M. Sreejith at the Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad, and another led by Vineet Gahalaut, director of the National Centre for Seismology in New Delhi.

Analysing data from a network of 36 Global positioning System (GPS) stations and using a geodetic method called InSAR (Interferometric synthetic aperture radar) Sreejit and his team reported (in the journal Scientific Reports) that an earthquake of a magnitude similar to or greater than that of 2015 Gorkha earthquake (7.8) is due in the central Himalayas.

Gahalaut and his team, who analysed the continuous GPS measurements of crustal deformation from 28 sites reported (in Earth & Planetary Science Letters) that the next major earthquake is likely to occur in the Garhwal-Kumaun segment of the northwest Himalayas.

Arun Bapat, a Pune-based research seismologist who correctly predicted the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami, told this correspondent: “The predicted large magnitude earthquake in the Himalayas could occur most probably in 2018 or its proximity.”

IANS

 Growing warnings by scientists of an impending high-magnitude earthquake in the Himalayas have got further credence from yet another study by Indian researchers.

The new study, led by seismologist C.P. Rajendran of the Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research in Bengaluru, says the “enormous stacking up of strain in the region portends at least one earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or more in one of the overlapping segments of the central Himalayas anytime in the future”.

According to the study, published in “Geological Journal”, the researchers critically evaluated existing databases along with the data from two newly explored locales — Mohana Khola in far western Nepal and Chorgalia, which falls within the Indian border, to determine the timing of the last faulting event on the frontal thrust of the central Himalayas.

The researchers followed the local geology and structural map published by the Geological Survey of India, besides using Google Earth and imagery from Indian space agency ISRO’s Cartosat-1 satellite.

The analysis, the researchers say, “compels us to conclude that a great earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or more that occurred between 1315 and 1440 had unzipped a stretch of about 600 km (the length of central seismic gap from Bhatpur to beyond Mohana Khola) in the central Himalayas with an average slip (or displacement) of 15 metres”.

The present study underlines the fact after this massive earthquake, the frontal thrust in the central Himalayas (covering parts of India and eastern Nepal) has remained seismically quiet for 600 to 700 years, implying enormous build-up of strain in the region.

“An earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or more is overdue in this part of the Himalayas, given the long-elapsed time.

“Considering this potentially high seismic risk, this will be particularly catastrophic for a region marked by an ever-growing population and unhindered expansion of the built-up environment, to be contrasted with poor preparedness to meet this contingency,” Rajendran told this correspondent.

Roger Bilham, a US geophysicist at the University of Colorado whose years of work laid the basis for the current knowledge about earthquakes in the Himalayan region, fully supports the Indian researchers’ findings.

“They are undeniably correct in concluding that should an earthquake occur now, its magnitude could equal 8.5,” Bilham told this correspondent in an email.

“My own evaluation of the available evidence suggests their estimate is conservative, and should the rupture zone extend from east of Almora to west of Pockara (Nepal) the earthquake will exceed 8.7,” he added

The findings by Rajendran and his team confirm two other studies by Indian geophysicists — one led by K.M. Sreejith at the Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad, and another led by Vineet Gahalaut, director of the National Centre for Seismology in New Delhi.

Analysing data from a network of 36 Global positioning System (GPS) stations and using a geodetic method called InSAR (Interferometric synthetic aperture radar) Sreejit and his team reported (in the journal Scientific Reports) that an earthquake of a magnitude similar to or greater than that of 2015 Gorkha earthquake (7.8) is due in the central Himalayas.

Gahalaut and his team, who analysed the continuous GPS measurements of crustal deformation from 28 sites reported (in Earth & Planetary Science Letters) that the next major earthquake is likely to occur in the Garhwal-Kumaun segment of the northwest Himalayas.

Arun Bapat, a Pune-based research seismologist who correctly predicted the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami, told this correspondent: “The predicted large magnitude earthquake in the Himalayas could occur most probably in 2018 or its proximity.”

 The minimum temperatures remained below freezing point in the Kashmir Valley on Friday as an unabated cold wave continued in the Ladakh region, the weather office said.

“Same weather conditions are likely to continue for another five to six days,” a Met Department official said.

Srinagar city recorded minus 0.9 degrees Celsius, Pahalgam minus 0.6 and Gulmarg minus 1.2 as the night’s lowest temperatures.

Kargil town was the coldest in the state at minus 7.6 degrees Celsius followed by Leh at minus 6.5.

Jammu city and Katra town recorded 9.4 degrees Celsius as the minimum temperatures while Batote, Bannihal and Bhaderwah recorded 4.8, 3.0 and 2.4, respectively.

IANS

The national capital on Thursday witnessed shallow fog with ‘very poor’ air quality, while the minimum temperature was recorded at 12.2 degrees Celsius, two notches above the season’s average.

According to the System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting And Research (SAFAR), the overall air quality of the national capital was recorded in the ‘very poor’ category.

“The city witnessed shallow fog in the morning and it will continue in the later part of the day. The humidity at 8.30 a.m. was high at 93 per cent,” an India Meteorological Department (IMD) official said.

The maximum temperature was likely to hover around 28 degrees Celsius.

On Wednesday, the minimum temperature was recorded at 13.5 degrees Celsius while the maximum was 28.1 degrees, both three notches above the season’s average,

IANS

If a large magnitude earthquake occurs in the near future in the northwest (NW) Himalayas region as predicted by a recent study, the National Capital Region (NCR) of Delhi would suffer very heavy damage.

The 2001 earthquake in Bhuj in Gujarat, which claimed about 10,000 lives, had shown that the destruction by an earthquake is caused by two different types of waves: Shear Waves, confined to about 70 to 100 km from the epicentre and which adversely affect the foundations and basements of structures; and Rayleigh Waves that travel with a velocity between 2.5 to 3 km per second and produce a different type of destructive effect.

These Rayleigh Waves from earthquakes of magnitude above 7.5 become active at a distance beyond 150 to 200 km or more from the epicentre and adversely affect tall structures (height more than 17 meters) as was observed at Ahmedabad city located at a distance of about 320 km from the Bhuj earthquake’s epicentre. Another very important observation was that all structures with “stilted” floors (where the ground floor is used for vehicle parking) were severely damaged. A similar damaging effect by Rayleigh waves was observed in Mexico City, located about 500 km from the epicentre of the 1985 earthquake.

The Himalayan states had been visited by a number of large magnitude earthquakes and a recent study suggests the NW region (mostly Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and parts of Kashmir) is ripe for one. The Delhi NCR escaped major damage from the destructive Rayleigh Waves from past earthquakes because, prior to 1950, there were no high rise buildings there.

But the situation is now different. With its satellite townships of Noida, Greater Noida, Gurugram, Ghaziabad and Faridabad, NCR Delhi forms a big cluster of high-rise buildings with flyovers, bridges and elevated roads. It is also known that some of the high-rise structures have collapsed during construction itself. Many high-rise buildings have stilted floors. As was witnessed in Ahmedabad after the Bhuj earthquake, all these structures could suffer heavy damage in case of a large magnitude earthquake in the NW Himalayan region with its epicentre in the range of 270 to 350 km from NCR Delhi.

The Himalayan fault is known to have a potential to generate earthquakes up to a magnitude of 8 or more. The foundations in Delhi are not on solid rock but there is excess of soil and crushed rock (murrum) on the ground. In case of a powerful earthquake in the Himalayas, the long scissors of Rayleigh Waves could wildly chop the tall concrete structures in Delhi and neighbouring areas. The possibility that these buildings may collapse like a pack of cards in “Ahmedabad Fashion” cannot be ruled out.

In the opinion of some international expert seismologists, the world could see an increase in the number of strong earthquakes in 2018 and the next few years due to the periodic slowing of the Earth’s rotation. There is a clear correlation between the speed of the earth’s rotation and global earthquake activity, said Roger Billham of the University of Colorado and Rebecca Bendick of the University of Montana, who recently presented their research at a conference in the US.

Fluctuations in the Earth’s rotation are tiny — changing the length of the day by several milliseconds — but could be enough to release vast amounts of underground energy, they have said. It has been reported that on five occasions in the past century, a 25-30 percent increase in annual number of earthquakes (of magnitude 7 or greater) coincided with a slowing in the mean rotation velocity of the Earth.

The slowing down of Length of Day (LoD) normally lasts for six years, after which the earth enters a period of enhanced seismicity. In this century, the LoD started in 2011 and now the year 2018 could be considered a period of higher seismic activity. While the research did not indicate precisely when and where these future earthquakes will occur, it showed that most of the intense earthquakes that responded to changes in day length seemed to occur near the equator.

A destructive earthquake is an extreme geophysical event and 2018 had already been witness to some climatic and atmospheric extremities. These include no water in Johannesburg and to some extent in Rio de Janeiro; thermal high of 48.2 degrees (C) in Churu (Rajasthan) and Gadchiroli (Maharashtra); and an all-time high value (45 degree C) in Vancouver (Canada) that claimed 28 lives. It has also been a record year of snowfall in Europe, America and China-Japan, with 20 causalities.

Currently, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in India are experiencing heavy snowfall up to about 1-1.5 meters. The year 2018 also appears to be an extremity as far as air accidents go. Until June, there were four accidents in Havana (Cuba), Algeria, Kathmandu (Nepal) and Moscow (Russia) together taking 488 lives.

Considering the expert opinions accounting for climatic and atmospheric extremities and keeping in view the reduction in the length of day due to slowing down of earth rotation, it could be assumed that the predicted large magnitude earthquake in the Himalayas could occur most probably in 2018 or its proximity.

 At least 634 people were injured in the magnitude-6.4 earthquake that struck Iran’s Kermanshah province, authorities said on Monday.

There has been no report of any fatal casualties, Xinhua news agency quoted Mahamoud Reza, president of Medical Science University of Kermanshah province, as saying.

According to the Iranian Seismological Centre, the epicentre of the earthquake, which took place on Sunday night in Sar Pol Zahab city, lied at a depth of 7 km, 34.38 degrees north latitude and 45.70 degrees east longitude.

Also, Iran’s National Gas Company said in a statement that pipelines have been broken in Sar Pol Zahab and Gasr-e Shirin cities.

People should not be concerned about the gas supply, the announcement said. Iran’s National Gas Company has started fuel supplies to people in the quake-hit area, it added.

All the schools and universities in Kermanshah province remained closed on Monday.

The quake was also felt in the neighbouring provinces of Lorestan and Ilam and Kordestan, as well as in the border areas of Iraq.

At least 161 aftershocks, ranging from 2.4 to 5.2 magnitude, have been registered in the region so far.

In November 2017, 211 people died in a magnitude-7.3 earthquake that hit the Iran-Iraq border.

IANS

 Back from a visit to some of the worst-affected parts of the cyclone-ravaged districts in Tamil Nadu, Tamil superstar Kamal Haasan on Friday appealed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit the state and see for himself the sufferings wrought on the people so that the Centre can come out with massive assistance to the state.

Haasan, who has entered politics recently by floating the Makkal Needhi Maiyam (MNM), went on a whistlestop tour of a few hundred kms of Thanjavur and Nagapattinam districts and Vedaranyam town, which bore the brunt of Cyclone Gaja, on Thursday and described the situation there as “pitiable and abysmal”.

He accused the state government of being lax and not making a proper assessment of the destruction of homes and crops in vast swathes of land in these affected areas.

Haasan questioned the hurry with which Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswamy rushed to Delhi on Thursday and presented a memorandum to Modi seeking relief of Rs.15,000 crore.

“It (rushing to Delhi) was a knee-jerk reaction under criticism from political parties in the state of the state government’s inaction,” he told IANS in an interview.

The Chief Minister should have done more extensive visits to the affected areas and made a proper assessment instead of doing a half day tour before rushing to Delhi.

The actor said a visit by the prime minister would infuse new hope in the affected people and galvanise the machinery into doing relief work efficiently.

“The cyclone has been a great leveller. It has affected the rich and the poor equally without caste and religious discrimination. They are looking for succour. And the help is slow in coming. Food is being given to the affected only once a day and that too the quality is poor,” he said.

The state government gives an appearance of doing some work but it is confined mainly to highways and main roads where accessibility is relatively easy. Power is being restored mainly on the arterial roads, he said.

Haasan said the two districts he visited were a scene of total disaster with cash crops like tamarind, mango, jackfruit, cashew and palm trees laid waste by the cyclone while the state government was talking of only damage to coconut trees. The farmers have to be supported in a big way by the governments to get them back on their feet after the great losses they have suffered, he said.

He said while the local officials claim that about 2,50,000 people have been affected by the cyclone, his own estimate from various sources put the figure of those displaced and homeless at around 4,00,000.

The sea has eroded into the towns in various places and at one place 400 fibre boats have been pushed far into the woods by the tidal waves.

The damage has been huge to the fishermen and they needed urgent help to restore their lives.

He said his concern was also about the fear of epidemics spreading in these places which the government should attend to.

Haasan also said there is some kind of healthy competition among political parties to reach aid to the people. He expressed confidence that they would cut across lines and help the people and government in a difficult time.

He said activists of his own outfit have rushed 60 truck loads of food and other materials worth over Rs.1.2 crore to the needy.

IANS

 Tamil Nadu Chief Minister K. Palaniswami on Thursday said the state government has urged the Central government for release of Rs 15,000 crore towards cyclone damge relief.

The severe cyclone Gaja crossed Tamil Nadu coast on November 16 leaving 63 people and thousands of livestock dead and damaging properties, standing crops, coconut groves, banana plantations and power distribution infrastructure in several districts.

Speaking to reporters here, Palaniswami said a memorandum detailing the devastation left by cyclone Gaja has been submitted to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

He said for temporary relief works, a sum of Rs 1,500 crore has been requested to be released immediately.

Palaniswami met Modi here on Thursday.

“The Prime Minister has assured to depute a central team to assess the loss,” Palaniswami added.

The Chief Minister said the compensation amount announced by the AIADMK government is far higher than what the then DMK government announced after cyclone Nisha in 2008.

Asked as to why he did not visit the cyclone-affected places by road, Palaniswami said four districts have been severely affected and countered as to how one can visit them by road.

He said he made an aerial survey flying low and has taken pictures of the damage which were handed over to PM Modi.

Delhi’s air quality remained ‘very poor’ for the fourth straight day on Wednesday, and is likely to remain in the same category for the next few days.

“Air quality is in the upper range of ‘very poor’ and is expected to remain within the same category for the next 2-3 days,” said a forecast by the System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting And Research (SAFAR).

On Wednesday, the Air Quality Index (AQI) of Delhi was 373, the same as on Tuesday, with no relief in sight.

Official reports claim that now stubble burning in the neighbouring states only have a “marginal impact” on the air quality of Delhi.

Delhi is suffering from its local pollutants and the prevailing weather conditions are allowing the pollution to accumulate.

“At present, wind speed is slow, which allows the pollutants to get accumulated. Humidity too is still high, which is slightly unfavourable,” SAFAR said.

The average presence of the major pollutant PM2.5 was 240 microgrammes per cubic meter in Delhi – a slight increase from 219 on Tuesday.

Across NCR, Gurugram with an AQI of 345 fell further into the ‘very poor’ category. The AQI was 386 in Ghaziabad, 392 in Greater Noida, and 377 in Noida.

IANS

 The Jharkhand government on Monday declared 129 blocks in 18 districts drought-affected and released Rs 49 crore for immediate relief, an official said.

A communication in this regard has been sent to the central government asking for assistance, the Disaster Management official told IANS following a survey conducted by the Raghubar Das government.

“Rs 49 crore have been sent to the affected districts to be used for drinking purposes, fodder for animals and help to farmers,” he added.

The survey came after Chief Secretary Sudhir Tripathy conducted a meeting in October.

As per the data, Jharkhand received 72 per cent average rainfall in 2018. However, at some places it was less than 50 per cent. The worst affected are Pakur and Koderma.

Ranchi, Khunti, Gumla, Garhwa, Latehar, Dumka, Jamtara, Deoghar and others received more than 50 per cent but less than 75 per cent rainfall.

The drastic lack of rainfall affected paddy sowing, which was less than 16 per cent of the average.

According to the official, paddy sowing is done on 18 lakh hectares of land in the state. However, this year sowing took place only in 15.27 lakh hectares.

The average rainfall in the state is 1,027.7 mm, but in 2018 it received only 741.9 mm.

In August and September, the normal rainfall in Jharkhand is 276.2 mm and 235.5 mm, respectively, but it received only 213.2 mm and 133.6 mm. The shortfall in the September rainfall damaged the crops, the official added.

IANS