Parmesh S Jain
On 16 August,a Chinese naval vessel made a port call at Hambantota.The docking of this hi-tech ship in southern Sri Lanka has caused considerable apprehension in India.
Although the Chinese government insists the ship sailed in solely for refuelling,the Indian government is discomposed as they believe the vessel is part of a reconnaissance mission that will obtain intelligence on Indian maritime defence fleets.
After extensive consultation and dialogue with all relevant national regulatory bodies,Sri Lanka granted entry, provided security clearance,and issued a No Objection Letter.
However,the entry was contingent on their concession to keep the ship’s Automatic Identification System (AIS) accessible and running to monitor its position and activity within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
Indian concerns mounted when the ship overstayed its docking period and departed on 22 August instead of the scheduled 19 August.
No personnel rotations or research activities were detected.
Hambantota Port occupies a strategic position in the Indian Ocean,being at the crossroads of international shipping routes to Europe,America, and South Asia.
Sri Lanka offered India the opportunity to construct this port, but India passed on it. Therefore, China seized the opportunity.
India has reservations about Yuan Wang’s stationing at Hambantota as its powerful naval technology includes satellite and ballistic missile trackers and a marine radar with a range of 750 km.From its location, it can observe Indian nuclear stations at Kalpakkam and Koodankulam as well as six Indian ports.
Aggravating the tension is the fact that this is the second time in the decade that Sri Lanka allowed Chinese seacraft into their ports. In 2014, Colombo Port accommodated a nuclear submarine and warship despite India’s objections.
Ranil Wickremesinghe,the President of Sri Lanka, initially prorogued the docking permission but eventually yielded to mounting criticism that suggested he was caving under pressure from India.
Sri Lanka is in a quandary as it needs to maintain a delicate balance in diplomatic relations between India and China now more than ever.
Given its current economic crisis —characterised by soaring inflation, food scarcity, debt distress, and high unemployment — the island nation is keeping itself afloat through investments and credit lines from its neighbours.
Sri Lanka’s decision on Yuan Wang 5 has more to do with consolidating its own stability and national interests than disregarding Indian maritime security concerns.
In a brittle economic situation, they cannot adjudicate disputes or address unresolved tensions between India and China.
As of August 2022,Sri Lanka is $51B in international debt, owing $6.5 billion to China.
They resorted to payment-in-kind in 2018,ceding Hambantota Port to Beijing,when they defaulted on their repayments to China.
As of July 2022, India intends to offer Sri Lanka $3.8 billion in humanitarian aid. Notably,foreign donations and loans are equally strategic and humanitarian.
Sri Lanka can only clear its debts if the new administration can implement policies and practices to revitalise the economy, thereby normalising tax and interest rates and restructuring its debt plan.
If a country cannot make good on its debts, its creditors cannot repossess sovereign assets.
However,to save face and avert further disgrace on the international stage, they can relinquish assets or control,as Sri Lanka did with Hambantota Port, leasing it for 99 years.
To expand and strengthen its power and maritime ambition in the Indian Ocean,China has invested in Sri Lanka’s politics,infrastructure,and economy.
In terms of political investments, they have the upper hand over India.China has provided monetary and military support during anti-LTTE campaigns.
Where infrastructure is concerned, China constructed Hambantota Port and undertook real estate development on the outskirts of Colombo.
On an economic front,China is keeping Sri Lanka’s head above water after unsuccessful bailout package negotiations with the IMF.
By managing 10% of Sri Lanka’s debt, China is keeping the island country from slipping into the murky waters of bankruptcy.
Indian companies are also combatting crises on Sri Lankan soil.Lanka Indian Oil Corporation is set to open and operate 50 new fuel stations across Sri Lanka to mitigate the fuel shortage.
Naturally,there is an unspoken rivalry between Indian and Chinese efforts in Sri Lanka.Given the complicated history of Indo-Chinese relations, both will strive to equal and surpass the other’s contributions in a geolocation of shared interest.
Harin Fernando,the Sri Lankan Minister of Tourism, hopes diplomatic relations between India and Sri Lanka will not curdle because of Sri Lanka’s admittance of Yuan Wang 5.
India has reservations because the ship could survey its naval assets in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, considering China’s stakes in Sri Lanka’s precarious economy,the possibility of establishing a Chinese military base is not too remote. India likely shares the American concern that the People’s Liberation Army is commanding the ship in an effort to accrue information on satellites and missiles.
India has been a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD) —along with the US, Japan, and Australia—since its inception in 2007.
This alliance aimed to forestall China’s attempted hegemony over the Indo-Pacific in general and the South China Sea in particular.
Inspired by the vision of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP),they proposed orders and strategies for countries with interests in the Indo-Pacific to play fair,with the US formalising the document in 2019.
Further,India and China are UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) signatories.
Although the framework is legally binding, each country interprets the UNCLOS laws subjectively and according to its own geopolitical stakes and national interests.
As Sri Lanka’s government did not observe any suspicious activity or experience nonadherence from Yuan Wang 5’s crew in the EEZ, there was no breach of laws.
Suspicions and speculations, however compelling,cannot escalate into real security concerns without concrete proof.
However, India’s protests against Yuan Wang 5 may not be completely unreasonable and one-sided.
If Sri Lanka falls into a debt trap,interest/exchange rates and domestic stock prices will be affected, resulting in social and economic disruptions within the country.
As India is a major investor in Sri Lankan projects, business will suffer.
Maritime legal frameworks desperately require crisis management protocols to nurture international cooperation and respect,deescalate conflict,and avoid goading.
