India conceded their top place in the World Test Championship standings to Australia following a crushing 0-3 Test series defeat against New Zealand and now they need to win at least four games in their five-match series Down Under to stay in the race for the final.
India lost to New Zealand by 25 runs in the third and final Test in Mumbai, resulting in a 0-3 whitewash, their first in a home Test series since South Africa’s 2-0 win in 1999-2000.
It was India’s fifth loss in the ongoing WTC cycle, causing a significant drop in their points percentage (PCT), which fell from 62.82 to 58.33.
Australia regained the top spot with a PCT of 62.50.
India are now scheduled to fly down under to play Border-Gavaskar Trophy, which has gained more significance now as both teams will be vying for the top two spots.
To secure a place in the final, India must achieve a 4-0 victory over the Australians, which will boost their percentage to 65.79.
Even a 2-3 loss could leave a slim chance for second place, provided New Zealand draw with England and South Africa split their series.
For defending champions Australia to qualify for a successive time, a 3-2 victory over India will keep them ahead in the race, even if they falter against Sri Lanka later on.
However, to avoid relying on external outcomes, they will need to secure five wins out of their seven remaining matches.
New Zealand’s historic series sweep in India has also bolstered their WTC final aspirations.
They have climbed to the fourth spot with a PCT of 54.55, while Sri Lanka occupy third place with a PCT of 55.56.
With three home Tests against England remaining, New Zealand can keep their hopes alive winning all three, potentially pushing their percentage to 64.29.
But a single loss could drop them back into the pack, depending on other results. Buoyed by their recent resurgence, third-placed Sri Lanka are also in contention.
With four crucial Tests remaining against South Africa and Australia, they can clinch a spot in the final with four victories, pushing their percentage to 69.23%.
South Africa, currently fifth with a PCT of 54.17, also remain in contention for a top-two finish and a place in the next year’s one-off Test at Lord’s.
With four Tests left against Sri Lanka and Pakistan, South Africa’s path is clear: win all four to secure a strong 69.44% finish — which can be surpassed only if Australia secure best possible finish (76.32%).
