At the microlevel, the party categorises booths as A, B and C. The first is the party’s strongholds; the second is where it has a 50-50 chance and the last category is where the party faces a tough challenge. The BJP may have a clear strategy and the resources to implement it; but the big challenge is to match the opposition firepower in the region. Congress top guns DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah and JDS leaders HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy all come from the region.
On its part, the BJP is promoting Vokkaliga community leaders, who seem to be doing their best. But most of them are from Bengaluru city, barring a few senior leaders. Now, the party is likely to give importance to the region during the ministry rejig and also in the party reorganisation ahead of polls. Apart from the dominant Vokkaliga community, the party is also focusing on the significant backward class votes. Siddaramaiah enjoys a considerable support base among them, although OBC voters have not fully backed Congress in recent elections.
The JDS, meanwhile, is making efforts to woo minorities by appointing CM Ibrahim as the state unit president. Overcoming internal differences among its top leaders and consolidating anti-BJP votes may be a challenge for Congress. The JDS is facing its own share of problems with leaders deserting it in droves. While those factors may help BJP, its strategy cannot depend only on these aspects. Going by the recent bypolls and Council election results, the BJP and the Congress seem to be on an equal footing in most of the regions, except in Old Mysuru.
In Vokkaligadominated areas, the Opposition party has some advantage and hopes to use it to negate the ruling party’s possible gains in Lingayat-dominated North Karnataka. This was one of the major factors for the BJP’s growth under the leadership of BS Yediyurappa. Before the BJP emerged as a force, the community had backed Congress and Janata Parivar for a long time.
As BJP slowly consolidated its position in North Karnataka, the JDS managed to retain its hold in Old Mysuru. Congress could get the full support of the community when SM Krishna became the chief minister in 1999.
Now, Shivakumar is hoping to do an encore of the Congress performance under Krishna, the JDS is fighting for its survival and the BJP is going all guns blazing to conquer the last bastion. If the preparations are anything to go by, Old Mysuru is sure to witness a battle royal and decide the course of Karna
