If the current trend persists till April 18 when the state goes to the polls, the grand old party could win nine out of the 10 seats it is contesting.
As the multi-dimensional campaign juggernaut criss-crosses Tamil Nadu, one picture that emerges from the din and dust raised in its trail is of the Congress finishing way ahead of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) by not just in winning more Lok Sabha seats in the state but also by gaining popularity with Congress President Rahul Gandhi endearing himself to the people of the state as a potential prime ministerial candidate. The states goes to the polls on April 18.
Though the two major national parties are facing the electorate in grand alliances led by the two regional parties — the Congress is in an alliance with the Dravida Munetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the BJP is with the All India Anna Dravida Munetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) — the defining issue this election is of national importance. Should Prime Minister Narendra Modi return to power or not is the dominant question this election has raised in the minds of the people.
With a slew of anti-Modi tropes, circulated in the form of memes or videos or pamphlets or audios or jokes, driving home certain politically- or socially-significant ideas against the central government, even people in rural areas have gained a national perspective, coloured with regional aspirations.
So, it is quite common to hear a comment like “Modi is anti-farmer”, at a farmland in an obscure village such as Sarathapatti near Theni in southern Tamil Nadu. Such comments are supported by informed allegations like “the government has no focus on farm issues” and a reminder about “how the protesting farmers from Tamil Nadu were treated by the Prime Minister who even refused to give them an audience.”
It is commonplace to hear people on the street talk about the unsavoury consequences of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the personal sufferings caused by demonetisation or the need for doing away with NEET — the all-India medical entrance examination that is a bone of contention uniting Tamil Nadu. Perhaps sensing the mood, the Congress in its manifesto addressed many such locally important issues.
However, more than the surge in popularity of the party, what gives the Congress a distinct edge this time is the alliance it has forged with the DMK, the two Communist parties and other regional parties. The DMK is more popular than its rival the AIADMK and the Communist parties have their pockets of influence, mainly through their trade unions. Even the smaller partners have supporters throughout the state, say like the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) among the Dalits, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) among the Muslims and the Kongunadu Munnetra Kazhagam (KMK) among Gounders.
The cumulative effect of all these factors could work in favour of the Congress candidates in the 10 constituencies, including in Puducherry. Kanyakumari, the southern-most seat in India, is considered to be a stronghold of both the BJP and the Congress. Pon Radhakrishnan, the sitting MP and Union minister, is facing Congress’ H Vasanthakumar. With a strong anti-BJP wave sweeping through the constituency, where minorities form more than half the population, Vasanthakumar may breeze through.
In Virudhunagar, Congress candidate Manickam Tagore is a former MP and is quite influential in the area. He has come out with an innovative idea to seek voters’ suggestions through WhatsApp, which had so far received 20,000 responses. His key opponent from the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), Alagarsamy R, is unlikely to put up a tough fight.
In Theni, it is a three-cornered contest, where former Congress state chief EVKS Elangovan might scrap through because the other two candidates have an AIADMK background. One of the candidates is P Raveendranath Kumar, the AIADMK candidate is the son of deputy chief minister O Panneerselvam. The other is Thanga Tamilselvan, a close associate of TTV Dhinakaran, the founder of the AIADMK breakaway group Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK).
AMMK candidates, who are likely to split the traditional AIADMK votes, are likely to help the cause of Congress candidates MK Vishnu Prasad at Arani, A Chellakumar in Krishnagiri and K Jayakumar in Thiruvallur. Among these three Congress candidates, Jayakumar might not have it easy because he is facing sitting MP P Venugopal, a doctor who is locally popular.
In Karur, Jothimani Sennimalai, the only women candidate for the Congress in Tamil Nadu, will be facing sitting MP and Lok Sabha deputy speaker M Thambi Durai. Though Sennimalai lost the assembly elections in 2011 and the general elections in 2014 from Theni, this time she is hopeful because she has the support of local DMK strongman Senthil Balaji. Balaji was earlier with the AIADMK and was instrumental Durai’s victory. When the AIADMK split, Balaji moved over to the DMK in December 2018. This time he is determined to prove his local influence by ensuring a Congress victory.
Su Thirunavukkarasar, who has traversed the entire political spectrum in a career spanning 42 years, is now the Congress candidate in Tiruchirappalli and may make it to the Lok Sabha as his main opponent is AMMK’s Sarubala Thondaiman. The NDA candidate is DMDK’s Elangovan is an outsider and relatively new to politics.
Sivagangai, the second constituency that sees a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress after Kanyakumari, is expected to be a cakewalk for Karti Chidambaram, son of former Union minister P Chidambaram. This is mainly because H Raja, BJP’s candidate, is highly unpopular. The BJP is expected to pull out all stops here but it will still be a tough task for Raja.
In Puducherry, Congress candidate V Vaithilingam is more popular than his rival from the breakaway faction of the Congress, All India NR Congress, K Narayanasamy mainly in view to the open fight for supremacy between Chief Minister V Narayanasamy and Lieutenant Governor Kiran Bedi. The popular perception that Bedi is overstepping her brief could work in favour of the Congress.
So in the state where opinion polls are giving the DMK-led alliance up to 36 of the 39 seats, the Congress’ share could be quite high. For now the stakes are tilted in favour of the Congress in at least nine of the 10 seats it is contesting. This is in sharp contrast to the BJP that will find it extremely difficult in four of the five seats it is contesting in Tamil Nadu.
Agencies
