As a dry spell entrenched itself over most parts of Peninsular India, India Met Department (IMD) has said that North India will not have any respite from active monsoon conditions. This is in view of the expected formation of a low-pressure area over North Bay of Bengal over the next two days, after it missed date with the region around the first of this month.
Dry spell in South
According to IMD’s wind-field projections, the system would track in a west-north-westerly track cutting across Bihar, Jharkhand, West Uttar Pradesh and winding up over Delhi and neighbourhood. This effectively means that the atmosphere over Rajasthan is not any more conducive to receive rain systems originating from the Bay since it is transitioning into monsoon withdrawal mode.
September 1 is the normal date of withdrawal for the monsoon from Rajasthan, the north-western fringes of the geography, in a month-long procedure that progressively covers the rest of the country.
Peninsular India would not benefit too much from the brewing ‘low’ since it forms too far north of the Bay and out of its own internal dynamics at a time when the Arabian Sea flows stay indifferent.
According to the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services, the dry spell over Peninsular India may extend for another week (till September 11).
An ensemble model of the US National Weather Services, the monsoon circulations may linger over the East Coast, mainly along and off Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts, into September 20. It sees the last one among these emerging as a conventional ‘low’ and making its presence felt along the foothills of the Himalayas across Bihar and Uttar Pradesh before winding up over Uttarakhand.
Projections by the IMD indicate that there is scope for at least one more ‘low’ to form over the North Bay by September 13, although this needs to be watched out empirically for confirmation.
It said in the morning update that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls are likely to continue over Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next three days.
Heavy to very heavy and isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over parts of North-West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas during the next two days, it added.
