By : Manohar Yadavatti
The ruling Janata Dal Secular regional party is facing a grave threat of being decimated from the state electoral politics after 23 May,the counting date of the ensuing Lok Sabha general elections if at all the pre poll survey reports of the 28 Lok Sabha constituencies projecting the humiliating rout of state outfit were to come true.
Most of these poll projections undertaken by several private agencies have hinted at diverse results but most of them concurring at the literal wash out of the proclaimed peasants party from the electoral scene.A survey report claimed to be on the findings of the state Intelligence Department was doing rounds on the social networking sites since a few days mentioning that the Janata Dal Secular party will have to be content with only Hassan Lok Sabha constituency.
Prajwal Revanna,son of HD Revanna,Minister of Public Works Department and grandson of HD Devegowda,former Prime Minister and Janata Dal Secular party supremo is the party candidate in Hassan constituency.It may be recalled here that Hassan,the native district of the JDS patriarch has continued to be a loyal constituency for the family and the former prime minister has represented it for five times.
However he has parted it to his grandson this time while preferring to shift to the neighboring Tumakuru which had an Congress MP in the 16th Parliament.Interestingly sources in the Intelligence Department disclaimed the so called survey report abuzz on the social media while projecting a 50:50 prospects for JDS-INC combine and the Bharatiya Janata Party.
These sources on condition of anonymity opined that as per the present scenario the JDS-INC combine is set to bag 14 Lok Sabha seats leaving the remaining 14 to the BJP.The Janata Dal Secular party big boss to start with had demanded 12 constituencies and had also uttered at the same time:Ours is a small regional party and we’ll have to be content with whatever seats allotted to us!
The senior Gowda as he’s known in party circles is also notoriously known when it comes to bargaining for political fortunes.However over a period of time the octogenarian leader became flexible in his stance by downsizing the claim to 10 initially and 08 finally.Yet the self imposed misery wasn’t over as the party lacked candidates to contest in all these eight constituencies!
So Pramod Madhwaraj,a Congressman was zeroed upon to contest from Udupi-Chikkamagalur while Bengaluru North was returned to the Congress.In this way the JDS was left with Mandya,Tumakuru,Hassan,Shivamogga,North Canara and Vijayapura constituencies.
Mandya,Tumakuru,Hassan and Shivamogga are the only four constituencies wherein the party is facing a close and fiercely fought battle against the main rival Bharatiya Janata Party.
In Mandya Nikhil Kumaraswamy,actor son of HD Kumaraswamy,Chief Minister and another grandson of HD Devegowda is facing a tough fight against Ms Sumalatha,multilingual actor and wife of late MH Ambareesh,Veteran Kannada actor and former state and Union minister.In his Yesterday’s public meeting at Mysuru,Prime Minister Narendra Modi had appealed the electorate of Mandya to vote for Ms Sumalatha,the BJPsupported Independent candidate.The local Congress cadre is up in arms against the party’s decision for parting away the seat to the JDS fold while letting the former minister’s widow in lurch.
Any number of appeal and warning by the party high command have failed to appease the Congress workers who more than abiding the directions have challenged the former to expel them from the party itself for campaigning to the Independent candidate!
In Tumakuru SP Muddahanumegowda,sitting Congress MP is severely upset over handing over the Congress constituency to the JDS.He also filed nomination papers to contest but withdrew following a ‘deal’,according to party insiders.Although he withdrew from the contest he’s not seen anywhere campaigning for the former prime minister.It’s almost the same case with KN Rajanna,former Madhugiri MLA and president of state Apex Bank.
Prajwal Revanna is said to be retaining Hassan though he’s facing a stiff competition from A Manju,BJP candidate and former Congress minister who switched over to the saffron party on the eve of elections.Though the path of Prajwal Revanna is not all that rosy as projected in the JDS circles but thanks to the loyalty of the electorate towards the Gowda family,he may ultimately sail through is what political observers feel.
Madhu Bangarappa,son of S Bangarappa,former Congress chief minister is again pitted against BY Raghavendra,son of BS Yeddyurappa in Shivamogga.The former had lost in the bye elections to the BJP candidate.Again here it’s no cake walk for BJP’s BY Raghavendra nor is it an easy task to Madhu Bangarappa of the JDS either,thus hinting at the possibilities of BJP romping back.
The Janata Dal Secular party candidates in North Canara and Vijayapura are not worth mentioning to make it a formidable contest paving way for a one sided contest to the sitting BJP MPs’ at both the places.Ananthkumar Hegde,Union Minister for Skill Development representing North Canara has been known for his penchant for triggering controversies by his utterances uncalled for his political stature and position.He was one of the six sitting BJP MPs’ against whom there was a demand within the party opposing renomination to contest.
The fight would have been neck to neck had there been a Congress candidate against him.Thanks to the seat sharing arrangement between the alliance partners there looks to be no real contest left for the BJP candidate in North Canara!Even in Vijayapura the situation is no better for the JDS.Ramesh Jigajinagi,Union Minister of State for Drinking Water and Sanitation has represented the reserve constituency twice.
He was also facing opposition within the party for renomination to contest.There would have been a real contest in the event of a Congress candidate.But by letting out the seat to the JDS,the Congress has made the way for Ramesh Jigajinagi to get elected to the Parliament in a easy manner.
So either way you like to look at it’s only Mandya,Tumakuru,Hassan and Shivamogga where the JDS has evolved the stature of a tough rival.However if you were also keen to observe the ongoing media frenzy campaigns there is little hope for the JDS among these constituencies as well.
In such a predicament what would be the fate of the party?Probably the outcome of these elections on 23 May will be an eyeopener and answer to all such volley of questions.
