The years 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 marked “pre-election” budgets presented by finance ministers with distinct personalities. They also symbolised tectonic shifts in Indian polity and economy. What would Nirmala Sitharaman symbolise in the 2023 “pre-election” budget?

At 11 AM on February 1, 2023, Nirmala Sitharaman will present the fifth “pre-election” Budget of this century. History buffs who keep tabs on trivia will know that Budget speeches were delivered at 5 PM till 1999 when the first “full term” non-Congress NDA government chose to break away from the imperial tradition. Jaswant Singh delivered the “pre-election” Budget speech in 2003; P Chidambaram twice in 2008 and 2013 and Arun Jaitley in 2018.

Each finance minister had a unique style and represented a decisive phase of political and social churn in India. The suave Jaswant Singh was the original choice of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999 when the NDA won a decisive mandate. He was vetoed by the Sangh Parivar. It was only in the fifth year of his term that Vajpayee got his say. When the man who has presented the most consequential Budget (1991) in independent India Dr Manmohan Singh was anointed as the Prime Minister by the UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi in 2004, P Chidambaram appeared a natural choice. After all, he was credited with presenting a “dream budget” in the 50th year of Indian independence. 

Articulate and occasionally abrasive, Chidambaram continues to punch above his electoral and political weight. His successor, Arun Jaitley, too punched way above his political and electoral weight. There were many grumbles and murmurs within the Sangh Parivar when Jaitley was given the finance portfolio (along with defence) despite losing badly to Captain Amarinder Singh (then with the Congress) in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. But the quintessential “Delhi insider” Jaitley was trusted implicitly by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His successor Nirmala Sitharaman too is in the cabinet having created a record of sorts by becoming India’s first defence and finance minister. 

A lot has changed both politically and economically since Jaswant Singh read the speech in his rich baritone 20 years ago. 

In the political arena, the BJP-led NDA has scripted “history” by winning two successive Lok Sabha mandates. There is an even chance Prime Minister Narendra Modi could equal the record set by Jawaharlal Nehru in 2024 by winning a third consecutive mandate. In the economic arena, three factoids signal the significant change and the significance of the change. In 2003; with a GDP of about $ 600 billion, India was the 12th largest economy. It is now the 5th largest economy with a GDP in excess of $ 3.5 trillion. In 2003, India boasted of $ 113 billion in foreign exchange reserves; they currently stand at $ 560 billion despite the depredations and global headwinds of 2022 that seem to have ensured that many developed countries face a recession or a drastic fall in growth in 2023. In 2003, the Sensex was within touching distance of 6,000 having registered a record 73% gain in one calendar year. Despite headwinds, the Sensex has broken through the psychological barrier of 60,000.  

Dig a little deeper and even more tectonic shifts are discernible in Indian polity and economy since Jaswant Singh read the first “pre-election” speech of this century. The year 2003 armed the high noon of coalition politics in India after decades of Congress dominance. When Sonia Gandhi-led UPA delivered a shock defeat to the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA in 2004 and won yet another mandate in 2009, it looked as if coalition politics and governments were becoming a permanent feature. The arrival of Narendra Modi has again tilted the scales. By 2003, personality cults were emerging as a new area of interest and study. By 2023, personality cults have become deeply entrenched. Look at Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik, Y S R Jagan Mohan Reddy, K Chandrashekar Rao, Pinarayi Vijayan and Arvind Kejriwal and you get the picture. The third most consequential change has been the seemingly terminal decline of the Congress and the remarkable resilience and ability of regional parties to withstand the onslaught of the BJP juggernaut. 

When it comes to the economy too, there have been tectonic shifts. Despite implementation glitches and snafus, the GST regime is creating a unified national market. The first baby steps were taken in 2003. The digital revolution is changing the Indian economy in a manner that even experts cannot foresee. Jaswant Singh, for sure, did not see it back in 2003. Then again, after decades of empty rhetoric surrounding “Garibi Hatao”, both the UPA and NDA governments have had spectacular success in reducing poverty. Budgets have played a role in this, as part of overall economic policies and measures. But arguably the most consequential change has been the emphasis on “welfare” schemes designed for the poor. In a manner of speaking, P Chidambaram set the ball rolling in his 2008 “pre-election” Budget speech by announcing a Rs 60,000 crore farm loan waiver. Today, “welfare” has become an integral part of fiscal and monetary policies. Massive increases in tax revenues have enabled finance ministers to play Santa Klaus. When Jaswant Singh read his Budget speech in 2003, total tax revenues were Rs 254,438 crores. As Nirmala Sitharaman gets ready to read her 2023 Budget speech, total tax revenues promise to cross Rs 30 Lakh crores. 

Mumbai: The rupee pared initial gains and slumped 22 paise to close at its all-time low of 83 against the US dollar on Tuesday, pressured by a strong greenback overseas and sustained foreign fund outflows.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened on a positive note at 82.69 against the greenback, but pared the gains and fell to an intra-day low of 83.00.

The domestic currency finally settled at 83.00, down 22 paise over its previous close of 82.78.

The domestic currency had last closed at the 83-mark on October 19, 2021.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 1 per cent higher at 104.55.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures inched up 0.02 per cent to USD 85.93 per barrel.

According to Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities, the Indian rupee continued its downward drift as importers rushed for dollar buying, while the inflows remained muted as traders awaited Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.

Spot USD-INR has been consolidating in the narrow range of 82.40 to 82.95.

“Looking at the greenback price action against the major currencies, the chance of an upward breakout is higher in the pair. Once the breakout confirms above 83, the short-covering rally will be imminent and levels of 83.50 and 83.70 can be seen in a short span of time,” Parmar added.

The 30-share BSE Sensex ended 126.41 points or 0.21 per cent higher at 61,294.20, while the broader NSE Nifty climbed 35.10 points or 0.19 per cent to 18,232.55.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 628.07 crore, according to exchange data.

Anindya Banerjee, VP – Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities Ltd, said, “Market will be nervous going into Fed minutes tomorrow night. We expect USD-INR to trade within a range of 82.70 and 83.25.”

Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, said the rupee has been trading between 82.50-83.00 since mid-December 2022 and looks set for another round of weakness if it breaches 83.00.

Gunjan Patidar Co Founder Zomato

Online food delivery platform Zomato Ltd said its Co-founder and Chief Technology Officer Gunjan Patidar resigned from the post on Monday.
     
Patidar was one of the first few employees of Zomato and built the core tech systems for the company, it said in a regulatory filing.
     
“Over the last ten-plus years, he also nurtured a stellar tech leadership team that is capable of taking on the mantle of leading the tech function going forward. His contribution to building Zomato has been invaluable,” the company said.
     
It, however, did not disclose the reasons for his resignation.
     
In November last year, another co-founder of the company, Mohit Gupta, resigned. Gupta, who had joined Zomato four-and-half years back, was elevated to co-founder in 2020 from the position of CEO of its food delivery business.
     
Zomato had witnessed some top-level exits last year, including those of Rahul Ganjoo, who was head of new initiatives, and Siddharth Jhawar, the erstwhile vice-president and head of Intercity, and co-founder Gaurav Gupta.

K. Mohammed Haris

New Delhi: Asian Arab Chamber of Commerce (AACC) has appointed K. Mohammed Haris, Managing Director of Mukka Sea Food Industries Pvt. Ltd, Mangaluru as Trade Commissioner for United Arab Emirates by consensus of the Member countries on Wednesday. He was appointed by Saad Al Dabbagh, Chairman at the head office based in Doha, Qatar.

“While I warmly welcome Haris into the board as the Trade commissioner, his experience and commitment to excellence will be a major asset for the Global Trade bodies and especially between India and the Arab nations. Congratulations and best wishes in his new role as Trade Commissioner.” said Saad Al Dabagh in Qatar.

“India-UAE relations are witnessing an unprecedented momentum with a large number of opportunities for cooperation and increasing investments, in key sectors like infrastructure and technology” said Haris who is actively looking at his new role in promoting trade relations between India and the Arab world specifically the United Arab Emirates.

“In the trade world, there is no one quite Haris from Mukka Exports. He is brilliant, hard-working and devoted to getting trade right. He’s been a devoted entrepreneur for nearly two decades on the Fishing and Sea food business, advancing the prosperity of India’s trade narrative. Through his work on various trade agreements, he has opened the doors for Indian businessmen to deliver goods and services in the UAE, strengthening our economy, and securing our leadership abroad,” said Dr Krishnakumar IAS, the former minister of Defense and Agriculture, Govt of India.

Arab world considers it very significant that the Trade Commissioner from India who is inaugurated as the head of the trade commission in the international organization which embodies diversity with many memberships from developing countries in light of maintaining and reinforcing the multilateral trading system. AACC hopes that the Trade Commissioner will address a myriad of challenges facing the India UAE Free trade agreement thorough cooperation with the Members, by demonstrating his deep expertise and experiences, his calibre of coordination with major countries, as well as his managerial ability to run multilateral institutions, which he has previously cultivated in his distinguished capacities in leadership roles and as a founder promoter of Mukka Sea Food Industries Limited. He has worked in different verticals with strategic assignments across companies, said a release.

Mohammed Haris receiving Niryat Shri Award by then President of India Pranav Mukherjee in 2014.

He would help the UAE exporters who can now benefit from greater market access through preferential tariff rates. Some products will be subject to zero tariffs from day one – others will see them reduced over time. The CEPA, which was signed earlier this year, is expected to increase the total value of bilateral trade in goods to over $100 billion and trade in services to over $15 billion within five years, said the release.

He is the Managing Director at Mukka Sea food Exports Limited and his role of building new businesses and forging international relationships with the Arab World qualify him for taking up the role of Trade commissioner for the United Arab Emirates. As a co-founder of SHIPWAVES he was responsible for building the next general digital platform for Global trade by streamlining the supply chain with Cloud and AI and Blockchain technologies. He also set up India’s first steam sterilised fish meal plant with expansion of 8 plants across the globe. Mukka group today has a turnover of over INR 600 Crores (Dhs 300 million) per annum and is one of Asia’s fastest growing companies.

“Haris is a great choice for one of the new Trade Commissioner as he joins the AACC to usher in a new era with more Indian leadership than ever before,” said Tribhuvan Darbari the Vice President of the board. As he has skillfully negotiated trade deals and crafted our nation’s trade policy while gaining a sophisticated understanding of the opportunities available and the challenges facing the Indian market that is looking at 5 Trillion in the short term. I look forward to working with him, as well as the Director General, to resolve the Committee’s long-standing concerns with the Free Trade Agreements. I also look forward to addressing issues that have not always been prioritized, particularly when it comes to climate change, labor, and SME’s economic empowerment. I wish him the very best in this new endeavor and thank him for his commitment to public service.” he said.

NEW DELHI: The Indian automobile industry is setting out on a journey with hopes for a sustained growth momentum in 2023 and further embracing clean technology amid the lurking speed breakers of rising interest rates and cost increases due to new emission and safety norms, having witnessed a strong comeback from the COVID-led downturn this year. 

While the passenger vehicles (PV) segment is set for record sales in 2022 despite the lingering effects of supply chain constraints and semiconductor shortages, the two-wheeler space is yet to see sustained sales buoyancy after having suffered for most of the year.

According to industry estimates, PV sales can reach around 38 lakh units this year.

The three-wheelers and commercial vehicles segments have also witnessed good growth in 2022 compared to 2021, albeit on a low base of last year, which was affected by the second wave of COVID-19 and manufacturers will be keen to carry forward the momentum to the new year.

As per industry observers, 2023 will also see acceleration in adoption of electric vehicles, which has already started taking root in 2022, especially in the two-wheelers segment.

For potential passenger vehicle buyers, 2023 may not ring in the best news as vehicle prices are set to increase next year as companies prepare to conform to stricter emission norms which kick in from April 1, 2023.

Many manufacturers like Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors and Hyundai have already announced plans to increase prices from January next year.

Besides, rising interest rates and not so bright global economic situation and its impact on India in the days to come are some of the factors which are keeping the industry in a cautious mode.

“Increase in price always has a certain negative impact on sales. But we still do not know how much the prices will go up and what will happen to input cost and foreign exchange. These are uncertainties which will always be there,” Maruti Suzuki India Chairman R C Bhargava told PTI.

He, however, stated that the domestic car industry has revived in the last few months and the semiconductor shortages are also going to abate in 2023.

“Putting it all together, our estimate would be that next year would probably be a reasonably good year for the industry. I think we should do at least as well if not better than 2022,” Bhargava said.

The country’s largest carmaker will keep bringing in cars, especially more SUV models, to cater to the customer demand, he noted.

Industry body Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) Director General Rajesh Menon said the passenger vehicle industry adopted the second phase of fuel efficiency regulations this year from April 2022 and is gearing up to meet the stringent second phase of BS VI emission norms from April 2023.

Discussions are also underway to implement various new safety regulations for passenger vehicles in 2023, he said.

“Implementation of these new regulations could raise the cost of the vehicles and this coupled with global recessionary trends are of concern going forward in the year 2023,” Menon pointed out.

Besides, with rising inflation, the RBI was compelled to increase the repo rates a couple of times this year and this increase in interest rate can impact the demand trends for all vehicle segments, he cautioned.

Though the overall numbers from January to November 2022 have shown appreciable growth for all segments including passenger vehicles, this has been achieved in the backdrop of a low base in 2021, which was affected by the second wave of COVID-19, Menon stated.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) Executive Director (Auto and Farm Sectors) Rajesh Jejurikar, however, remained confident about the industry maintaining the current sales momentum.

“At M&M, all models will comply with BS-VI.2 norms as per timelines set by the government and the price / cost difference may not be as steep as it was for the BS-IV to BS-VI transition,” he asserted.

While acknowledging that the semiconductor shortage continues to be dynamic and rising input costs and interest rates are some other challenges that the industry is managing, he remained optimistic about sales momentum continuing next year.

“Apart from these headwinds, we look forward to an action-packed 2023 on the back of huge demand from customers,” Jejurikar said.

Tata Motors Managing Director – Passenger Vehicle and Electric Vehicles Shailesh Chandra pointed out that it would be worthwhile to see the impact of macroeconomic factors like inflationary pressure on the industry.

“I would say that the growth is going to be high this year but next year on a very high base, with the interplay of so many tailwinds and headwinds, it would be still growth, but to what extent that growth would be on the high base, that will be seen,” he noted.

Kia India Chief Sales Officer Myung-sik Sohn said stricter emission norms are a positive for the industry’s collective efforts of trying to minimise pollution from vehicles.

However, they will surely have an impact on vehicle prices.

“You will see a hike in prices across all OEMs, but looking at the high demand for cars currently, we expect little impact on sales momentum,” he noted.

Automotive dealer’s body Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) noted that the PV segment still continues to hold a strong order book for several models which is expected to continue for a few months.

“The OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) need to continue with the creation of excitement through new launches, product upgrades etc. We expect the production soon to be back to normal and we can bring down the long waiting period to normal,” FADA President Manish Raj Singhania stated.

The long waiting period and flexible consumer behaviour during the festive season have helped the industry to see movement in the segment, but once the demand and supply balance is restored, the slow-moving models will be a challenge for the industry, Singhania said.

Commenting on the sales growth outlook, ICRA Vice President and Sector Head Corporate Ratings Rohan Kanwar Gupta said the rating agency expects the industry demand to remain steady and volumes to grow by 6-9 per cent in FY2024.

“The capex outlay for OEMs is estimated to remain heightened (an estimated outlay of Rs 650 billion over FY2023-FY2025, with the OEMs also budgeting for a substantial outlay towards new product development, including development of capabilities/platforms for electric vehicles,” he added.

Elaborating on the luxury car segment, Mercedes-Benz India’s outgoing Managing Director and CEO Martin Schwenk said, “We have to see how the overall economic climate is there. Overall, confidence is there that 2023 should be a good year. The world is dynamic but at the moment, we are starting with a positive momentum into next year.”

As for the two-wheeler segment, Menon said while an increase in interest rate can impact the demand trends for all vehicle segments, the government has also hiked the long-term insurance premium, which specifically impacts the two-wheeler segment.

“Two-wheeler demand has remained weak over the past few years, with consumer sentiments impacted by factors such as income uncertainty during the pandemic period and a persistent hike in two-wheeler prices led by both regulatory changes and inflationary pressures,” ICRA’s Gupta said.

NEW DELHI: NDTV promoters — Prannoy Roy and Radhika Roy – may have resigned from the board of RRPR Holding, one of the promoters of the New Delhi-based media company, but they legally continue to be the promoters of NDTV.

On November 29, 2022, the NDTV Board approved the resignation of Prannoy Roy and Radhika Roy as Directors of RRPR Holding facilitating a tighter grip for the Adani Group over the company. The Roys are the co-founders of NDTV.

The RRPR Holding Private Limited board has also appointed Sudipta Bhattacharya, Sanjay Pugalia and Senthil Chengalvarayan as Directors on RRPRH Board with immediate effect.

“NDTV has been informed by the Promoter Group vehicle RRPR Holding Private Limited (RRPRH) that the Board of Directors at the meeting held today i.e. November 29, 2022, have approved the resignation of Dr. Prannoy Roy and Mrs. Radhika Roy as Directors on the Board of RRPRH, with effect from the close of business hours of November 29, 2022,” said a regulatory filing by the NDTV.

This development comes a day after RRPR Holding on Monday informed that it had transferred shares constituting 99.5% of its equity capital to the Adani Group-owned Vishvapradhan Commercial (VCPL).

This long-pending transfer of shares gave the Adani Group control over a 29.18% stake in NDTV.

The group is also conducting an open offer for an additional 26% stake in the media firm. As of early Wednesday, the exchange data showed that Adani’s open offer drew bids for 5.3 million shares, or 31.78% of the 16.8 million shares on offer so far. This makes Adani the biggest shareholder in NDTV with around 38% stake, ahead of the Roys who together hold 32%.

The open offer will end on December 5.

What happens now

According to experts, the Roys remain the promoter of NDTV by legal definition.

“They will need to step down from the Board and management, and then the company has to pass a resolution for de-promoterisation of Roys. Depromoterisation will happen only if they choose to sell their 32% direct shareholding,” says Shriram Subramanian, founder of proxy advisory firm Ingovern Research Services.

He further says that a resolution should also be passed for the recognition of new promoters (depending on which entity the Adanis want as promoters).

It must be reiterated here that Roys have only resigned from the board of RRPR Holdings, and not from the Board of NDTV.

RRPR Holdings, which was a promoter group entity and then held only 7.56% stake in NDTV, took the loan on behalf of NDTV from Vishvapradhan Commercial Private Limited (VCPL) in two tranches (Rs 350 crore in July 2009 and another Rs 53 crore in January 2010).

As per the loan agreement, RRPR was required to issue warrants to VCPL, which were convertible into equity shares aggregating to 99.99% of share capital of RRPR.

The loan agreement also required Pannoy Roy and Radhika Roy, who together held 55.5% in NDTV at the end of June 2009, to transfer their shares in RRPR Holdings. Due to these terms, RRPR Holdings stake in NDTV increased to 29.18% by January 2010. As mentioned earlier, that stake has now been transferred to VCPL.