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Motherson Sumi Systems – Outlook improving, but largely priced in

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Motherson Sumi Systems

Motherson Sumi’s (MSS) Q4FY16 adjusted EBITDA at INR10.6bn (up 17% YoY) came ~6% below our estimate due to sharp disappointment in SMR/SMP revenues. Key highlights were: 1) India business (revenue and margin) surprised positively; 2) SMRPBV’s disappointing revenue was compensated by robust margin; 3) sharp jump in SMRPBV’s order book to EUR13.5bn (EUR10.8bn YoY); and 4) robust demand outlook across key clients and geographies. Maintain ‘HOLD’ with SOTP-based target price of INR280 (standalone: 22x, SMR: 12x and SMP: 12x FY18E PER).

Operating performance: SMR/SMP revenues disappoint
Consolidated revenue at INR102bn (up 8% YoY) was ~6% below our estimate due to weaker-than-expected revenue in SMR and SMP. In EUR terms, SMR and SMP revenue grew 7% and 2% YoY, respectively (slowest in past 8-10 quarters). However, India business surprised positively with 13% YoY revenue jump led by higher share of new models and rising content per vehicle. EBITDA margin of India business at 20.9% (up 240bps QoQ) and SMR business at 12.5 % (up 180bps QoQ) surprised positively.

India: Worst is behind; SMR/SMP margin trend key monitorable
After 4 quarters of subdued growth, India revenue grew 13% YoY. We estimate 17%/22% revenue growth for FY17/18 as the market share loss phase is behind. In SMR/SMP, ramp up of new plants remains key to revenue growth and margin improvement. We estimate ~15% revenue growth for SMR/SMP in FY17/18 each.

Outlook and valuations: Positives factored in; maintain ‘HOLD’
We believe the earnings downgrade cycle is largely behind. For India, we expect revenue growth to track volumes going ahead. We estimate FY16-18 consolidated EPS CAGR of 26% with ~36% RoE. RoCE is anticipated to catapult to ~36% in FY18 from 26% in FY16 and net debt/equity is likely to improve as well to 0.3x from 0.7x over the same period. Ergo, we revise up our target PE multiples for standalone business to 22x (from 20x) and of SMR/SMP businesses to 12x (from 10x). However, the recent stock price surge captures the positives. Hence, we maintain ‘HOLD/SU’ with revised target price of INR280 (INR248 earlier). At CMP, the stock trades at FY18E PER of 17x.

Bhojpuri Films Round Up

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Rani Hum Ho Gaeeli Tohar

Rani Hum Ho Gaeeli Tohar editing progresses

The editing of Birajishri Balaji Art Films’ Rani Hum Ho Gaeeli Tohar is currently in progress at A. B. Studio under the supervision of editor Bharat. The credits of the film are produced by Raja Ram Kanaujia, written & directed by Prakash Anand, music by Sahil, lyrics by Prakash Anand & Sagar, action by Pradip Khadka, choreography by Ashok -Mayank, cinematography by Ashwini Mishra, & associate director is Satya Dubey. It stars Gaurav Jha, Neha Shree, Ram Mishra, Baleshwar Singh, Nagendra Yadav, Sanjay Verma, Dharmendra Singh, Shama, Harish Gupta, T. N. Tripathi, Manoj Gupta, Glory & Ranu Pandey.

Bam Bam Bol Raha Hai Kashi first look launched

The 1st look of Purple Pebble Pictures maiden venture Bam Bam Bol Raha Hai Kashi was launched recently at Purple Pebble Pictures Juhu office by Dr. Madhu Chopra . On this occasion the cast & the crew and film distributor Rakesh Singh (Ma Sona Films) were present. The credits of the film are produced by Priyanka Chopra & Dr. Madhu Chopra, written & director by Santosh Mishra, associate producer is Ravi Shankar Jaiswal, music by Rajnish Mishra – Madhukar Anand & cinematography by Rafik Shekh. It stars Nirahua (as Kashi), Amrapali Dube, Antara Banarjee, Prakash Jais, Manoj Tiger, Sanjay Pandey, Ayaz Khan, Rati Garg et al.

 

Loha Pahalwan shooting starts

The shooting of Nishad Production & GML Entertainment Pvt Ltd’s Loha Pahalwan has started in Mumbai this week. The credits of the film are produced by Sanjay Nishad, Gautam Nishad & Kajal Nishad, directed by Iqbal Baksh, story by Prakash Jais, executive producer is Sushil Singh & Prakash Jais, cinematography by Dinesh Patel, music by Chhote Baba, lyrics by Azad Singh, choreography by Dilip Mistri, action by Heeralal Yadav & art by Kali Charan. It stars Pawan Singh, Payas Pandit, Prakash Jais, Zafar Khan, Deepak Sinha, Dev Singh, Somlal Yadav, Kiran Mallah, Sakshi, Umakant Rai, Ratnesh Tiwari & Sushil Singh.

Mukhtar DI complete

The DI of GDM Production’s Mukhtar has been completed in Mumbai this week. The credits of the film are produced by Anurag Pandey, Hemant Tiwari & Vikas Pratap Singh, directed by Anand Singh (A.K.), written by Jitendra Yadav, screenplay & dialogues by Manoj Panday, music by Chhote Baba, lyrics by Rajesh Mishra, Pyarelal Yadav Kaviji, Ashok Sinha & Mritunjay Yadav, cinematography by Devendra Tiwari, choreography by Ashok – Mayank, action by Bazi, art by Ashok Vishwakarma, editing by Dharam Soni & executive producer is Akhilesh Rai. It stars debutant Jitendra Yadav, Raviraj Dipu, Baleshwar Singh, Santosh Shrivastava, CP Bhatt, Anjali Banarji, Mahi Khan, Pragya Tiwari, Rashmi Sharma, Sunita Pandey & Sanjay Pandey.

Herogiri dubbing starts

The dubbing of Yash Movie Maker & Sabran Films’ Herogiri has started in Mumbai this week. The credits of the film are produced by Nirmal Chaudhari & Aaryan Raj Vijay, directed by Manoj S Tomar, story – screenplay – lyrics by Virendra Panday, dialogues by Sanjay Raj, music by Madhukar Anand, cinematography by P. Arun Eknathan, choreography by J D & action by Chandra Pant. It stars Anand Ojha, Kajal Raghwani, Archana Singh, Sanjay Pandey, Manoj Tiger, CP Bhatt, Ritu Pandey, Pushpa Varma, Vijay Mishra, Sunil Datt Pandey et al.

Bhail Tohra Se Pyar post production complete

The post production of Mitwa Production House’ Bhail Tohra Se Pyar has been completed in Mumbai this week. The credits of the film are produced – written – lyrics by Dharmendra Kumar Maurya, directed by Shad Kumar, co – produced by Ram Ashish Chauhan, cinematography by Shad Kumar, music by Raul & Pal Kanpuri & choreography by Gyan Singh. It stars Vinay Anand, Gunjan Pant, Rajeev Dinkar, Simran, Anand Mohan, Upasna Singh, Dev Malhotra, Mehnaz Shraff, Baby Farhan, Baby Fariya et al.

EgyptAir flight MS804 from Paris to Cairo crashed

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egyptair

by BBC

An EgyptAir flight reported missing between Paris and Cairo has crashed, French President Francois Hollande confirmed.

The Airbus A320 with 66 people on board disappeared from radar at 02:30 Cairo time (00:30 GMT), soon after leaving Greek airspace.

Greece’s defence minister says Flight MS804 made “sharp turns” and plunged before dropping off the radar.

A major search is under way in seas south of the Greek island of Karpathos.

Greek and Egyptian armed forces are involved in the effort, and France has offered to send boats and planes.

Mr Hollande said he was keeping an open mind about the cause of the crash.

“We will draw conclusions when we have the truth about what happened,” he said.

“Whether it was an accident, or whether it was – and it’s something that is on our minds – terrorism.”

There were 56 passengers – including three children – seven crew members and three security personnel on board. They included 30 Egyptians, 15 French citizens and a Briton.

Flight MS804 left Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris at 23:09 local time on Wednesday (21:09 GMT) and was scheduled to arrive in the Egyptian capital soon after 03:15 local time on Thursday.

EgyptAir said the plane had been flying at 11,300m (37,000ft) when it disappeared from radar shortly after entering Egyptian airspace.

Aviation officials in Greece said earlier that air traffic controllers had spoken to the pilot a few minutes earlier and everything had appeared normal.

But Greece’s Defence Minister Panos Kammenos told a news conference that soon after entering Egyptian airspace, the plane had turned “90 degrees left and 360 degrees to the right” before plunging.

There was some earlier confusion over whether a distress signal had been sent by the plane.

Egypt’s state-run newspaper al-Ahram quoted an EgyptAir statement as saying the Egyptian army’s rescue and search had received a distress call from the plane at 04:26 local time – which would be around two hours after the flight disappeared.

But Egypt’s military subsequently said that no such signal had been received.

IPL: Royals dethrone Kings in a must-win game

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GL

Bengaluru: Hosts Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) dethroned Kings XI Punjab on early Thursday by 91 runs in a must-win league tie to keep its hopes of a place in play-offs alive in the IPL-9 season at the Chinnaswamy stadium here.

Chasing an imposing target of 212 in 15 overs RCB had set by piling up a whopping 211 for three wickets in 15 overs after heavy rain delayed the match by 110 minutes on Wednesday night, Kings scrambled to make 120 for 9 wickets in 14 overs, when sudden rain again forced the umpires to call off the match.

The third consecutive victory propelled the home team to the second position from fifth position in the points table, with 14 points from seven wins in 13 games by virtue of its record net run rate of +0.926, ahead of Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR), Mumbai Indians (MI) and Gujarat Lions (GL) who all have 14 points each with 7 wins.

Chances of a berth in semis brightening up with a hat-trick of victories, RCB will play its last league tie against Delhi Daredevils on May 22 at Raipur in Chattisgarh to stay on the course.

After RCB’s openers Chris Gayle and skipper Virat Kohli rattled the Kings XI bowlers to register a record 149-run first wicket partnership in 67 balls (11.1 overs), it was the turn of Royal bowlers to dominate the game by unsettling the latter’s batsmen and making the contest one-sided.

As Kings lost wickets at regular intervals, its top and middle order failed again, with Wriddhiman Saha being the top scorer at 24 in 10 balls.

RCB’s only leggi Yuzvendra Chala was the most successful bowler taking four wickets in three overs for 25 runs, while Shane Watson and S. Arvind bagged two each in two overs each.

Earlier, put to bat by Kings XI skipper Murali Vijay who opted to field despite winning the toss, man-of-the-match Kohli set a new record by scoring his fourth century (113 in 50 balls with 8 sixes and 12 fours) in this IPL season and Chris Gayle returned to form by hitting 73 in 32 balls with 8 sixes and four boundaries.

Desperate efforts by Vijay to break the partnership or get either of them out early failed as Kolhi and Gayle were in full cry and batted with disdain.

While the first 50 came in 4.4 overs of the six-over power play, the first 100 of RCB’s innings came in 8.5 overs.

Though Vijay used as many as five bowlers to contain the openers, there was no respite for Kings till Gayle got caught by David Miller of Arshad Patel ball in 11 over when RCB score was 147 on the board.

After in-form AB de Villiers was bowled for a duck in 12th over, keeper K.L. Rahul joined Kohli to take the score to 199 when the skipper was caught by Miller off Sandeep Sharma ball at 113 comprising 8 sixes and 12 fours in just 50 balls.

Rahul and Kohli were involved in a 45-run third wicket partnership in 15 balls.

Rahul remained till the end at 16 not out.

Patel, Sharma and Abbot of Kings shared one wicket each of RCB’s batters.

RCB retained the same team that won by 9 wickets over Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) in Kolkata on May 16, while Punjab made three changes, bringing in Farhaan Behardien, Kyle Abbot and K.C. Cariappa in place of Glen Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis and Anureet Singh.

(IANS)

Kerala poll: Sreesanth clean bowled

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Sreesanth

Thiruvananthapuram: Former cricketer S Sreesanth, who recently joined the BJP, was on Thursday finished at the third spot in his Thiruvananthapuram constituency in the Kerala assembly elections.

State health minister VS Shivakumar retained the seat.

Sivakumar polled 46,474 votes, winning over his nearest rival Antony Raju by a margin of 10,905 votes. Raju polled 35,569 votes.

Sreesanth came third with 34,764 votes.

As of latest media reports, the LDF is leading in 89 seats, UDF in 49 and BJP in 1.

Sreesanth was given a life ban by the BCCI in September 2013 after being found guilty of spot-fixing in that year’s IPL tournament. However, a Delhi court exonerated Sreesanth along with two other cricketers–Ankeet Chavan and Ajit Chandila–in July 2015 in the high-profile IPL match-fixing case which had blown the lid off cricket’s biggest scandal in recent times.

The 33-year-old had earlier said his name had been cleared by the court in the match-fixing case and he was not worried about any political attack over the controversy.

(Agencies)

TMC in WB; BJP in Assam; AIADMK in TN; LDF in Kerala

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West Bengal Tamil Nadu

New Delhi: The BJP appears to have stormed Assam unseating Congress which also looks like losing Kerala as incumbent TMC and AIADMK are cruising comfortably to retain power in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

In the Union Territory of Puducherry, Congress-DMK alliance was ahead in the 30-member assembly closely followed by AINRC headed by Chief Minister and former Congressman N Rangaswamy.

Assam is on the road to making history with BJP set to get its first government in the North East by dislodging Congress which has been in power for three consecutive terms.

The saffron party was leading in 73 of the 126 seats while the ruling Congress was trailing far behind at 33. The ADUF led by Badaruddin Ajmal was ahead in 13 seats. ‘Others’ were leading in eight seats.

In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC maintained its hold against an unlikely alliance of CPI(M) and Congress and her look like bettering its last election performance. The TMC was ahead in 216 seats out of total 294. The Left parties are leading in 30 and Congress in 37 while BJP was ahead in 9 seats.

As per trends, J Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK appears to be winning Tamil Nadu for a straight second term, bucking the tradition since 1989 when a ruling party has not returned to power. AIADMK’s performance has also disproved several exit poll predictions which had tipped the DMK-Congress alliance to come to power.

The AIADMK was leading in 126 seats while DMK-Congress alliance was ahead in 91 seats. While the third front of parties headed by DMDK’s Vijaykant failed to make any impact, the PMK which contested all the 234 seats could lead only in seven seats.

In Kerala, the Left Front was well on the road to dislodge Congress from power keeping up the tradition of voting out the incumbent government. The Left Democratic Front was ahead in 88 of the 140 seats while the ruling UDF was behind at 50.

According to trends, BJP may make a maiden entry in the state with the party said to be leading in one seat.

In Puducherry, the Congress-DMK alliance was leading in 13 of the 30 seats. The ruling AINRC was leading in 12 seats while AIADMK was ahead in two seats.

(Agencies)

NBCC – On sound turf

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NBCC

NBCC maintained strong execution run rate and posted 39% YoY jump in revenue growth for Q4FY16. One-off employee costs led to reported EBIDTA margin falling 220bps YoY to 7.8%. However, adjusted PAT was in line with estimates. Aided by order intake worth INR175bn during FY16, the company’s order book stands at ~INR310bn (book-to-bill at 5.3x) with further ~INR300bn projects at various stages of approval. Robust revenue visibility, cash-rich balance sheet and near monopoly in redevelopment space will enable NBCC to post 30% plus PAT CAGR over FY16-18E. Maintain ‘BUY’ with a revised target price of INR1,267 (INR1,278 earlier).

Robust execution continues
Top line surged 39% YoY to INR23bn in Q4FY16 (our estimate INR22.6bn) with ~INR3bn contribution from Kidwai Nagar project (INR9bn in FY16). One-time provision for post retirement medical benefits as well as special bonus to employees on achievement of ‘Navratna’ status impacted margins. Reported PAT, at INR1.4bn, was up 4% YoY; adjusted for one-offs, it would have been in line with estimates. The company delivered 32% top-line growth in FY16 with adjusted post growing ~20%.

Strong revenue visibility, opportunities galore
NBCC ended the year with order book of INR310bn (FY15 order book at ~INR193bn). In addition, projects worth ~INR300bn (including 2 projects from DDA, government colonies redevelopment in Delhi) are at an advanced stage of approval. Management expects sanction for redevelopment of government colonies in Delhi to come by July end. These projects will require initial investment of INR3-5bn.

Outlook and valuations: Attractive; maintain ‘BUY’
Operating leverage and increasing share of redevelopment projects will improve margin trajectory going ahead. Burgeoning order book, robust return ratios (25%+ RoEs) and cash-rich balance sheet make NBCC a worthwhile bet in our view. We maintain ‘BUY’ with a revised target price of INR1,267, based on 27x FY18E EPS.

Allahabad Bank – No cheer, all staid;

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Allahabad Bank

Allahabad Bank (ALBK) reported INR5.8bn loss in Q4FY16 impacted by muted revenue momentum and blow up in asset quality. Slippages spiked to INR74bn (>19% versus 4-5% run rate in past 6 quarters). Revenue momentum was tepid with NII slipping >12% YoY. However, controlled opex cushioned profitability. Factoring in higher-than-anticipated credit cost, we prune our FY17/18E earnings by ~10%/9%. On operational front ALBK’s competitive prowess will be severely impacted given diversion towards clean up coupled with capital constraints for growth (which may not be forthcoming for mid-sized PSU banks) thus we see operating profitability to remain under pressure. Maintain ‘HOLD’.

Slippages spike further; outlook cautious
Slippages catapulted to INR74bn, with INR9.75bn on account of banks AQR and INR49bn accounts related to other banks AQR. Management highlighted things are unlikely to improve soon as balance sheet clean up continues (INR87.2bn of SMA-II accounts need monitoring). Additionally, performance of accounts under 5:25 scheme (INR14.6bn), SDR cases (INR17.8bn), higher exposure to stressed segments (I&S and power) and overall elevated stressed assets (NNPLs plus restructured book) at > 12% keeps us guarded.

Revenue traction drags, lower opex cushions profitability
Soft NII growth (down >12% YoY on muted loan growth and softer NIMs) fed into slower revenue traction, in turn leading to >9% YoY decline in core operating profitability. Lower opex (down > 5% YoY) cushioned profitability. Given structural challenges, we see operating profitability remaining under pressure.

Outlook and valuations: Structural challenges lurk; maintain ‘HOLD’
Apart from high asset quality stress, mid-size PSU banks are hampered on operational front too. We perceive clear demarcation between large and mid-size PSU banks and expect pressure to continue in latter. Given increasing BASEL III requirement and limited capital support from government, dilution risk is imminent at weak multiples, which will be detrimental to shareholders’ returns. The stock is trading at 0.5x FY18E P/BV (post dilution). We maintain ‘HOLD/SU’ with TP of INR58.

Samajwadi Party names Amar Singh, Beni Verma for RS election

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amar singh

Lucknow: Over six years after it expelled Amar Singh, the Samajwadi Party today “unanimously” declared him as its candidate for the Rajya Sabha polls, setting the stage for his possible return to the party.

The party also nominated six others, including former Union minister Beni Prasad Verma, an influential Kurmi leader who recently quit Congress and returned to the Samajwadi Party, and realtor Sanjay Seth for the biennial polls scheduled next month.

When asked about when would Singh, a former confidante of Mulayam Singh Yadav, rejoin the party, Shivpal Singh Yadav, a UP Minister and brother of party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav said,” It will be decided by Netaji (Mulayam) and Amar Singh. We have earlier also sent Congress leaders Pramod Tiwari and P L Punia to Rajya Sabha.”

Amar Singh along with his close associate Jaya Prada were expelled from the Samajwadi Party in February, 2010. He floated his own political party, Rashtriya Lok Manch, in 2011, and fielded a large number of candidates in 2012 assembly polls. However, none of his candidates won. He had joined the Rashtriya Lok Dal and contested the 2014 Lok Sabha poll from Fatehpur Sikri but lost.

Samajwadi Party denied there were “differences” over some candidates and claimed the decision on fielding them for the Rajya Sabha polls was “unanimous”.”The SP parliamentary board has unanimously decided seven names for Rajya Sabha. There were no differences and party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav was authorised to take the final decision. The names were read out in the meeting,” Shivpal, also the party spokesman, told reporters.

The board has taken the decision after much thought and it will strengthen the party, he said, refuting reports of certain “objections” raised over some candidates at the meeting held today.

The seven candidates are — Beni Prasad Verma, Amar Singh, Sanjay Seth, Sukhram Singh Yadav, Reoti Raman Singh, Vishwambhar Prasad Nishad and Arvind Pratap Singh.

Seth is a controversial Lucknow-based builder, who was earlier recommended to be nominated an MLC by the ruling party but his name was not approved by Governor Ram Naik. The governor had also rejected the government’s proposal to nominate Rajvijay Singh and Kamlesh Pathak to the Legislative Council, contending that they did not qualify for it due to criminal cases pending against them.
Both Ranvijay Singh and Kamlesh Pathak figure in the list of eight candidates for the Legislative Council polls.

Others are Balram Yadav, Shatrudra Prakash, Yashwant Singh, Bukkal Nawab, Ram Sundar Das and Jagjivan Ram.

The Governor had clarified that under Article 171(5) of the Constitution, MLCs are to be nominated from five fields — literature, art, science, cooperative movement and social service, and these belonged to none of these category.

The support of 37 MLAs would be needed for a candidate’s victory the Rajya Sabha polls.

As per the existing strength of different parties in the 403-member state Assembly, Samajwadi Party with 227 MLAs would be able to get six nominees elected to the Rajya Sabha, the BSP two, and BJP one. Of the nine seats falling vacant, BSP has six and SP three.

(PTI)

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